Irish beef prices could take a 15% hit if tariffs on exports to the UK are introduced in a trade dispute related to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Although beef prices hit an all-time high this week, with base quotes topping 530c/kg, Kevin Hanrahan of Teagasc cautioned that exports to the crucial British market could be endangered if the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol escalates and threatens the Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) between the EU and UK.

Speaking at the annual conference of Agricultural Economics Society of Ireland, Hanrahan pointed out that Irish beef exports to Britain could potentially face 70% tariffs if the TCA is set aside.

Quoting Brexit research undertaken by Teagasc, Hanrahan said Ireland’s beef exports to the UK – which totalled 214,000 tonnes in 2021 and were valued at €880m – would be particularly exposed in the event of a trade war and prices at farm level could take a 15% hit if full tariffs were imposed.

In contrast, sheep prices are predicted to increase by 20% in the event of UK-EU trade war, with cereal prices up 5%. The impact on dairy prices would be negative, but relatively marginal.