Beef price: beef herd shrinking longer term but short-term numbers remain strong

The latest Department of Agriculture animal identification and movement (AIM) data for 1 September 2019 shows longer term shrinkage in the national beef herd.

As Table 1 demonstrates, there were 92,847 fewer beef-sired animals on farms compared with 1 September 2018.

Analysis of the data gives a breakdown of 36,528 fewer suckler beef cows and 34,149 less beef males, while the number of beef heifers dropped 22,170 head.

As also detailed in Table 1, there are significant variations between age categories.

The reduction in male and female cattle is being driven by a sharp fall-off in the six- to 12-month and 12- to 18-month age categories, driven by a combination of higher live exports and fewer suckler herd births.

Beef perspective

From a beef perspective, numbers in the 18- to 24-month and 24- to 30-month age brackets are still showing positive compared with the same period in 2018, with a total of 23,502 extra head present.

A portion of this is cancelled out by 8,130 fewer dairy males in the same age categories.

While this leaves a plus figure in the region of 15,000 head, the factor which continues to have the greatest bearing on throughput is the knock-on consequences of a backlog of slaughter-fit cattle due to beef protests.

There has been 75,000 fewer cattle processed in the last six weeks and, combined with a deterioration in ground conditions, this is bringing a flush of cattle on to the market.

Price pressure

Reports indicate beef prices are under renewed pressure this week. A high percentage of cattle are moving at a base of €3.50/kg for heifers and €3.45/kg for steers, but some factories negotiating deals are now starting to quote a 5c/kg lower base.

This leaves a growing gap to a base price of €3.50/kg for steers and base of €3.60/kg reported as being paid in Liffey Meats.

However, other reports also suggest that there is a growing backlog of cattle building up, with the plants concerned said to be operating at lower capacity.

Bull prices

Bull prices are unchanged at the start of the week. R grades are moving from €3.40/kg to €3.45/kg, with U grades from €3.50/kg to €3.55/kg.

Bulls less than 16 months and trading on the grid are being offered a base price averaging €3.40/kg.

Carcase weight limits are coming more and more under the spotlight and also vary greatly between plants.

Some are trying to introduce weight limits starting at 380kg to 400kg, with deductions on a rising scale at weight increments thereafter.

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