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The latest outlook summary published by AHDB suggests that beef production in Britain will be down 4% next year, with this downward trend set to continue into the longer term.
That comes after a period of high slaughterings in 2019, which are expected to reach 2.01m head, an increase of 1% (19,700 more cattle) on the equivalent figure from 2018.
However, the latest data from October show that there are 2.3% fewer prime cattle on farms aged 12 to 30 months, and this is expected to feed through into relatively tight supplies, particularly in the first half of 2020.
Overall, breeding cow numbers in October 2019 were down 2%, with a further 1.7% reduction projected in 2020
The lower numbers are mainly being driven by a contraction in the suckler herd on the back of low margins.
Overall, breeding cow numbers in October 2019 were down 2%, with a further 1.7% reduction projected in 2020. As a result, less calves are being registered, and with a greater proportion coming from the dairy herd, this also leads to a reduction in average carcase weights.
As a result, total beef production is expected to fall 4% in 2020, with further reductions projected for 2021 and 2022.
With lower domestic production, UK beef exports, which have performed strongly in 2019 (up approximately 21%), are expected to fall 9% in 2020.
To fill some of the gap in the UK market, beef imports are expected to rise 5%.
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