In the last week, we’ve got a flavour of where supply is going. Rain has arrived across Europe to boost autumn feed supplies.
For some countries that have an opportunity to grow grass, like Ireland, it will save millions for dairy farmers on already increased feed costs.
In terms of Irish milk supply, yes, it will help underpin late autumn supply, but it will not make a big change on annual supplies.
Dutch milk supply shows a significant increase in August. High milk price is driving the decision. The latest figures from RVO in Holland suggest milk supply rose by 3.3% last month. In July, the increase was around 1.5%. Every month before that there was less milk.
Dutch dairies setting milk price have held rather than continuing the price lift of late.
French milk suppliers are fighting with processors as they look to cut milk price. A balance between supermarkets not willing to pay higher prices for fresh milk and farmers with higher costs is the problem.
In the US, milk prices are higher than they have been for years and peak milk price this year has probably passed. It is probably the equivalent of between 55c and 60c/litre, which is almost a 10-year high. Milk to feed price ratio is not as good as it was earlier in the year, so it will probably cap milk supply to an extent.
Finally, the last piece of the thread helping us predict milk supply this autumn came from New Zealand last Friday when Fonterra announced that it is predicting 2022/2023 milk supply will be back on what was previously predicted. It reduced its supply forecast by 15m kg MS.