An emission ceiling for agriculture of between 16-18m tonnes of CO2 equivalent has been set by Government. It will require a 22-30% reduction in emissions by 2030 – with the final figure set next year.

An Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar state this can be achieved through the stabilisation of cattle numbers rather than any reduction. The Government also claims the plan will develop an agri-food strategy that will deliver the highest standards in terms of sustainability – including economic sustainability. But do the numbers stack up and what does a stable herd really mean?

A stable herd does not mean that the status quo will be maintained. The national dairy herd is going to continue to grow with cow numbers forecast to reach 1.8m by 2025 – these additional 150,000-200,000 cows are either on the ground or in the womb at present.

Targeting sucklers

In the context of a stable herd, the Government is therefore clearly targeting a significant reduction in suckler cow numbers in order to facilitate further dairy expansion. Otherwise, agricultural emissions in 2024 and 2025 could actually be higher than at present. This focus on reducing suckler cows is emphasised by the fact that within the next CAP, the target is for just 385,000 cows and 20,000 farmers to take part in BDGP.

In terms of farm profitability, it is difficult to argue with this approach. The opportunity to grow the dairy sector has allowed thousands of farm families improve their incomes.

Where the Government approach must be challenged is the method being used to reduce suckler numbers – undermining the economic viability of the sector through negative supports. In no other sector or walk of life would such an approach be tolerated. If Government wants sucker farmers to liquidate their asset, they should come forward with an equitable plan to achieve this.

It will necessitate the fastest rollout and adoption of technologies at farm level ever witnessed

The option of a suckler quota based on a percentage of the existing national herd must be brought into the debate. It would be aligned to a commitment from Government to create a financial envelope that would see farmers participating in the scheme receive a significant payment linked to their quota. A combination of green adjustment funding and the Brexit Adjustment Reserve (BAR) fund should be ring-fenced to support suckler farmers in this.

Trading quota

Quota could be traded, allowing individual farmers buy quota from those seeking to exit production. This would allow farmers to maintain or even increase numbers in line with future developments on the farm. Establishing a quota also creates a tangible asset that farmers seeking to retire or exit from the sector can sell. For example, farmers retiring could have the option of selling their quota tax-free.

But will forcing suckler cow numbers down be enough to safeguard dairy growth while meeting emission reduction targets? Not necessarily. A recent KPMG report, commissioned by the Irish Farmers Journal, indicates that at the lower end of the Government’s range, future dairy growth would be achievable on the back of a sharp decline in suckler numbers.

However, if a 30% emission reduction target is fixed next year, as suggested by Eamon Ryan last weekend, then even with the restructuring of the suckler herd, a reduction in dairy cow numbers would be required.

The opportunity to grow the dairy sector has allowed thousands of farm families improve their incomes.

Similarly, the Government’s commitment to delivering economic sustainability is not credible if agriculture emissions are required to fall by 30%. KPMG calculates that at this level, farm profitability would be reduced by 25-30%, over 54,000 rural jobs would be lost and economic activity within the rural economy would be reduced by almost €4bn per annum.

Nowhere in the Climate Action Plan do we see any indication that Government has a plan in place to replace these jobs or address the scale of the economic fallout.

At 22%, the potential to deliver a stable herd and protect farm incomes is more within reach. KPMG identifies the scope of existing emission reduction technologies to be within a 13-18% range. But the challenge and level of capital investment required to ensure the adoption of these technologies across all farms should not be underestimated. It will necessitate the fastest rollout and adoption of technologies at farm level ever witnessed in the sector.

New technologies

Similarly, the demand to identify new technologies in the coming year to bridge the existing 4% technology gap will require more research innovation in the next five years than we have seen in recent decades. KPMG show that a failure to bridge this gap will come at a cost to the rural economy of €1bn and 10,000 job losses.

Ultimately, the key piece of the jigsaw will be a commitment from Government to provide financial support to allow for what will be a necessary reduction in suckler numbers if stable cattle numbers are to be delivered. Achieving this by forcing farmers out of production by simply taking away income supports under the CAP flies in the face of both sustainable food systems and climate justice.