The tillage sector is not the only one getting a good bounce from the cold but dry weather. Young lambs are also benefiting from getting outside to grass and settled before tougher weather arrives. The price decline of late is hard to stack up. Numbers are well back in many of the major sheep-producing countries.

Total throughput to date in 2025 is a 21% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Hogget numbers are running 22% behind the same period. This tightening of supply is replicated across EU and UK markets. New Zealand lamb supplies are running 7% behind the same period last year. The Australian flock is also in decline.

Given the numbers detailed above and upcoming Muslim festivals, it is hard to see why hogget prices are in decline, never mind the carcase cut. Farmers will gladly take the better weather, but deepening price cuts as input costs remain relatively high is a step too far for many sheep farmers.