It would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall of the IRFU office that deals with player contracts these last few days. There are games of chess going on and after this weekend’s European action, some of the moves will have to be announced.

The hints about Ian Madigan going to Munster next season have begun to emerge and this is only the start of the horse trading. If, as expected, Robbie Henshaw moves to Leinster to replace Madigan (as an established international), Connacht will surely start agitating about getting a high-profile name or two themselves.

Our oft-forgotten province could have one foot in next season’s European Champions Cup by the time the Six Nations is over and if so, they will be in a much stronger bargaining position with the IRFU as regards player development. Up till now, the best the western province were producing tended to be snapped up by the big two with hardly a thank you in return. Qualification via the Pro12 for the top tier in Europe changes that.

The IRFU has a developing problem with recruitment – one they managed to stave off for years. The French in particular, and shortly the English thanks to a change in how their clubs are financed, are beginning to throw telephone book money at players.

For the last decade, the likes of Paul O’Connell and Brian O’Driscoll were kept at home thanks to a combination of salary and welfare management. The French and English were painted as seekers of mercenaries who would then be thrown on the scrap heap if they couldn’t stand up to playing 50 games a year. The IRFU made a sensible play of protecting our elite players, managing their game time, recovery and paying them close enough to the European going rate. The elite international players are centrally contracted and the system has worked exceptionally well for some time. Alas, it is beginning to creak.

The French in particular have copped on and their top teams are now putting together squads with serious depth, meaning the likes of Jonny Wilkinson was able to play into his mid-30s while the very competent alternative Freddie Michelak played half of the matches at 10, with Jonny usually taking the jersey for the most important games.

Toulon’s capture of Paul O’Connell, while it hasn’t worked for this season, would have gone the same way. They have begun to mind their top (and best-paid) players a little better.

As a result, France’s Top 14 and European sides are recruiting the best All Blacks and Aussies with private money, with the French federation quite powerless to prevent the inevitable dilution of the national team.

Will we fall into this trap?

That’s the dilemma that faces the IRFU right now. Our provinces are trailing in the wake of French sides; we’re now some way behind the English too. While we have regressed somewhat, the other countries have moved forward. The cash is pouring into their game and players are naturally following the money. Club-wise, that’s where the medals will be too.

The catch-22 for Irish rugby is threefold. Do we try to match the French and English clubs in attracting top-quality players to Ireland? Can we afford to risk the possible/inevitable dip in the quality of our international side as a result of that? How do we pay for four provinces (yes, four) going down that road?

It’s a doozie for Philip Browne and his staff at the IRFU. Both Munster and Leinster are already suffering financially at the loss of their competitiveness at the very top level. There hasn’t been a jaw-dropping foreign signing by any of the provinces for a number of years. The crowds are beginning to vote accordingly with their feet. Another Dougie Howlett/Rocky Elsom/Ruan Pienaar-type unveiling would bring some of them back.

Paying for this is probably the main reason it hasn’t happened, not to mention the very worthwhile policy of keeping Irish players in Ireland, ensuring our internationals get the necessary game time in the proper games, while being available for training camps with Joe Schmidt.

The solution is not straightforward or that obvious. Ironically, I think that Connacht’s hoped-for qualification for the European Champions Cup for the 2016/2017 season might give the IRFU some much-needed legroom. With four teams in the top tier, the options for recruiting strongly for next season improve and the provinces can finally start trading between each other equally.

It makes no sense, for example, for Johnny Sexton and Ian Madigan to be at the same province. Our No 1 and No 2 international out-halves need to be playing European Cup rugby at 10; their understudies can be learning their trade in the odd Pro12 game. So the likes of Munster, Connacht and Ulster must look at where they are strong and offer a decent swap. Henshaw for Madigan makes sense to me. If Henshaw must go, why not get something decent in return?

That would be just for starters. The money for the odd Dan Carter/Kurtley Beale capture would have to probably be privately funded. That’s something the IRFU are acutely aware of.

There are plenty of multimillionaires in this country who would like to be involved in the provinces. Finding the mechanism to let that happen without ceding control of the teams would require Jesuit-like diplomacy – good luck with that, Philip.

European action

This weekend, Leinster and Ulster’s interest in the Champions Cup will conclusively end. Three-time champions Toulon will be comfortable in the Stade Félix Mayol, while Toulouse will probably be made work for it in Ravenhill, but they should have enough against a team that were told Iain Henderson is gone for the season this week. That injury list is only getting longer.

Our forlorn Champions Cup hopes rests once again, as it used to be, in Thomond Park and with Munster. Back-to-back against old enemy Leicester used to mean a five- or a nine-point haul. Not this time. On all recent form and realities, Leicester will be the ones on top after the fortnight.

But there is light in the western sky. Connacht – who were robbed last Friday night in Cardiff – are back home in Galway this Friday night and can put Newcastle to the sword, thus remaining, in all likelihood, the only unbeaten Irish side in Europe while also the highest-placed (second) Irish team in the Pro12.

Changing times call for changing attitudes.