With heavy rain at the weekend and more forecast for this week, it feels as if October is doing its bit to maintain the average annual rainfall levels.

It’s only a few weeks since we were waiting for the rain to arrive after a dry summer and now there’s a feel of winter in the air.

A number were housed in advance of the TB test two weeks ago to streamline the workload. In order to stretch grazing on the home ground, cows have been put into smaller groups and a number remained in after testing.

These are mainly those with older calves or cull cows. A handful of younger cows, which either they or their calf had a tendency for a bit of extra speed, were kept in too.

It’s not so long ago when we thought Brexit and COVID-19 were the biggest challenges we faced

In a bigger group, animals like that tend to follow the crowd but as numbers reduce the influence of a wilder animal can increase so it made sense to reduce their proportion in the grazing groups.

A bunch of weaned heifer calves have gone back to grass and the current plan is to keep them out as long as possible.

For now, it’s only the poorest calves that are put on ration in an effort to get them back on track. They will be joined on ration sooner rather than later by the bull calves that are inside already.

Ration prices

With ration prices having jumped so much since last autumn, the calves will stay on the cow longer in an effort to keep milk going into them. It’s busier, but far from full occupancy in the yard, but a few wet weeks could see that change.

How the beef landscape looks in a few months when those cattle go back out could be very different to what we’ve become accustomed to.

It’s not so long ago when we thought Brexit and COVID-19 were the biggest challenges we faced. A war between the two biggest states in Europe and the pressures that put on fertiliser and energy supplies could have a far greater impact.

If gas and electricity prices continue to climb, what effect will that have on consumer spending habits around food?

Are we likely to see demand for forequarter cuts rise as they will be a more economical purchase than steaks and roasts?

What consumer appetite will there be for beef if energy prices continue to rise?

Thinking differently

The dawning of a new CAP, and with it a limit on payments, could see some of the larger players forced to think differently as well. How that plays out will be interesting when it comes to finishers returning to the ringside next year.

Money that some may have taken for granted in their single farm payment is no longer there, so how those farmers adapt will be interesting.

In-yard economics could drive change faster than any policy. If ration prices remain where they are or increase, and beef price drops or stagnates, what’s the plan then? That leaves those buying cattle to finish over the winter in a bind.

Do they stay and finish forward cattle or target the lighter store in bigger numbers now to finish them on grass in 2023?

Or do they just sit back for now, take it easy for the winter and return to the ringside in spring? Whatever way they turn, there’s some form of a gamble involved. It’s up to every individual if they want to roll the dice or leave the casino.