This will be a strange weekend in Irish rugby. And it won’t end well. We’re going through a process right now and the quicker we get to the end of it, the better. The end will be the acknowledgement that changes have to be made quickly to player recruitment policies and the selective provincial hoarding of talent.

That process has nearly run its course in Munster, where a tipping point may already have been reached. That didn’t happen on the field last weekend in Paris when the inevitable hammering happened; it happened off the field when Alan Quinlan plunged the knife into the entire setup. The secret to wielding the knife is being qualified to do so. Quinlan was a key player for Munster for 15 years and he played with the best, including the current head coach Anthony Foley, so his opinion comes with weight attached.

He spoke strongly in the wake of the defeat last weekend when he reached for the very un-rugby word “disgraceful”. In fairness to him, he said the team’s performance was borderline disgraceful but he did introduce the word and it was strong stuff. He also dressed his argument with undeniable facts and as a former player he recognised that the team didn’t play for each other, or, the biggest sin of all, for the jersey.

There was no fight in them. They rolled over to 14 men. The team let their supporters down and that bond was always Munster’s secret ingredient. No matter the situation, the Munster team always died on their feet. Not this year or last. Empty seats are a common occurrence in Thomond Park these days and that includes European days and nights.

Quinlan was right. The end is nigh. He has sympathy for Foley and that too is justified because he is only playing the 15 he is dealt. However, the players are not playing for him. This Saturday, Stade Français are back in Limerick and Foley’s job possibly rests on that 80 minutes, although the addition of Andy Farrell to the coaching setup for the next four months could suggest the IRFU is willing to wait till the end of the season.

Talk like this resembles the madness of the English Premier League in soccer, where managers are jettisoned with regularity. That hasn’t been the case in rugby, where contracts simply aren’t renewed. This has the potential to be the exception to that rule. Lose poorly on Saturday and a decent man like Anthony Foley could be out of a job, his first one at this level. Rugby people will have huge sympathy for his predicament but this is a results-driven business and it is beginning to take fewer prisoners. Munster are in serious danger of not qualifying for next year’s Champion’s Cup.

Foley has an injury list that would cripple most teams. Throw in his unfortunate timing in becoming Munster’s coach when the well and pockets ran dry and this good man could be thrown overboard. I hope his players stand up and the crowd responds. But I am afeared, as we say down Clare way.

Ulster leading the way

Ireland’s only ray of light in the senior European competition this season have been Ulster. This Saturday they travel to Saracens and the manner of their defeat will tell us all we need to know. Their English opposition are one of the favourites for the cup and are probably already qualified for the knockout stages. Right now, Ulster are the second-best placed of the runners-up but they won’t be after this weekend. Northampton and Toulon could pass them out, Ospreys as well.

It will probably come down to the last game for Ulster when they are thankfully at home to Oyonnax, the team they miraculously beat last weekend in their rescheduled fixture. That victory was a fortunate one. Les Kiss took a chance and he barely got away with it. When you get a break, it helps if you take it. A bonus-point loss this weekend in Allianz Park would be a great result and the best of the weekend for Irish teams. Without it, Ulster are not likely to make the last eight.

Leinster improving

Leinster seem to have righted their ship. Unlike Munster, they knew their European campaign was over from day one, so expectations were lowered instantly. This allowed them to regroup and give youth its fling and they now sit close to the top of the Pro12.

If Anthony Foley had the luxury of exiting Europe after his first home game, Alan Quinlan wouldn’t be talking about him. Leo Cullen is in the same boat as Foley, only he’s not taking on water to the same extent. He will, however, want to see the IRFU spread the cash because that will mean he gets his hands on a decent import or two.

Connacht concerns

We’re left with Connacht and I’m getting worried about them too. Discipline on the field is costing them dearly and some of this is tempered with stupidity. They threw away four vital Pro12 points at the weekend in Wales and this is their main objective this season.

On Saturday night, they are in France to take on Brive in the Challenge Cup and should they lose they will be third in the table as Newcastle will win in Russia. That shouldn’t break Connacht supporters’ hearts because nice as winning this tournament would be, it’s a tall order and it would take too much from their league pursuits and this is their route to the Champions Cup.

Munster’s misery is Connacht’s gain right now. The westerners have a real chance of finishing the third highest Irish team and that gets them a place in the top competition.

This is the real contest that matters in Irish rugby this spring. Connacht’s traditional strong time is during the Six Nations but this time around they might be down a few players. Their full-back Tiernan O’Halloran is the form 15 in the country right now; Joe Schmidt has to have him in the 22. It’s the price Connacht must pay. Let’s hope it doesn’t impede their inexorable progress.

One Irish team winning this weekend is about all we can realistically hope for. It needs to be Munster, but the glass is emptying fast.