Grain prices were flat to upward over the past week, as difficulties persist for output, especially for maize. But this continues to be balanced against a big output forecast on the wheat side, with big production in the major exporting countries.

The full impact of the excessive rain on US maize crops remains uncertain. However, the market still expects that the overall impact on global supply will be minimal given that global stocks are large and with big crops forecast in South America.

But all is not rosy, as there are still dryness concerns in Australia and parts of Russia and Canada. Export forecasts from Russia have been cut in recent weeks and weather conditions elsewhere are being keenly watched.

Global grain markets might be described as having a firmer tone this week because of the unquantifiable threat to supply caused by weather. There is some concern about the very high temperatures forecast for Europe this week, but impact may depend on how advanced or late a crop is and whether it was suffering drought stress ahead of the heat.

Native old-crop prices are slightly weaker as harvest nears, with wheat around €200/t and barley still at €175/t. New crop is slightly stronger though, with wheat fluctuating either side of €190/t and barley up to €178/t. Glanbia offered November prices of €190/t for wheat and €176 for barley earlier this week.