Farm organisations, Teagasc and industry have warned that there is a risk to the tillage area for 2023, as farmers fail to order fertiliser and are hesitant to make planting plans given the volatility in grain and fertiliser markets at present.

Figures displayed by Teagasc at the National Fodder and Food Security Committee meeting on Thursday suggest that production costs for cereals in 2023 will be 60% greater than in 2021.

A sub-group of the committee met on Thursday 28 July to discuss proposals to increase the tillage area, which were to be submitted to the Minister for Agriculture.

Teagasc estimated that the typical input costs for a tillage farmer in 2023 will be approximately €183,000 per 100ha. This is an increase of €69,500.

The increase in costs would result in break-even costs of production of €202/t for winter wheat and €200/t for spring barley.

Fertiliser availability

The figures display a large amount of risk for tillage farmers in the coming season. There are also huge question marks over the availability of fertiliser.

Phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) stocks are extremely low at present and with few orders coming from farmers and massive costs involved, co-ops and merchants are hesitant to order product, meaning that fertiliser companies are not bringing stock into the country.

The document submitted to the Minister for Agriculture also outlines that uncertainty around grain markets will make decisions on land rental and crop plantings very difficult for growers.

The average harvest price for green barley from 2015 to 2021 was €149/t and green wheat was €159/t. This gives an indication as to why tillage farmers are so weary of spending on high inputs.

A flat-rate payment was proposed to give support to farmers and confidence to supply chains by the sub-group.

However, in the longer term it was acknowledged that more risk management measures need to be used in the tillage sector. Price insurance was also suggested.