Despite the negative outlook for milk prices in the first half of 2026, the mood at last Thursday’s Winter Fair remained pretty upbeat.

In truth, there are many reasons for farmers to be positive, given two years of strong milk prices, record prices for beef in 2025, a steady sheep trade, excellent returns from poultry and a favourable year of weather.

In addition, the department got farm payments out on time in September and there was an unexpected 8% top-up paid in October.

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Taking everything together, 2025 should go down in history as one of the best years ever for farming in NI.

Difficult 2026

There is no doubt that things look more difficult in 2026, especially for dairy farmers. But we have been here before and as a couple of older heads pointed out at last weeks’ event, perhaps those involved in the sector need to start thinking like pig farmers.

When times are good in pigs, farmers have learned to put some cash aside, even if that does potentially mean having to pay more income tax than you might like.

Beef

Beef prices are also coming under some pressure, although it is nothing like the drop off being seen in dairy. At a local level, the situation is not being helped by a change in the age limit for the beef carbon reduction scheme, which moves from 28 months to 27 months from 1 January 2026.

But overall, the beef market is still exceptionally strong, although farmers who bought suckled calves in the autumn need prices to stay above 650p/kg if they are to have any hope of securing a margin.

One issue raised by a farmer at the Winter Fair who had bought some expensive calves, related to the failure of so many sellers to actually vaccinate their animals for pneumonia pre-sale.

If you are securing prices of up to £2,000, surely it isn’t too much to expect that you might spend £10 to £12 on two shots of a vaccine.