Opinion: political gongs for 2024

Top of the pile

In the 2011 general election, the outgoing government took an absolute pasting.

The Green Party was wiped out electorally and Fianna Fáil lost 37 seats.

Micheál Martin, who assumed the leadership just prior to the election, was one of only three members of cabinet to retain their seats.

When Brian Lenihan sadly lost his battle with cancer in June of the year, the party had no TD in Dublin.

Thirteen years later, Martin has not only led Fianna Fáil back into government, he has led now them back to being the largest party in the country with 48 TDs.

He will become Taoiseach next month, in what is a monumental political comeback by any standards, with an expected eight cabinet positions to be shared out among his parliamentary party. There can be no doubt about it, 2024 has been Michael Martin's year.

Back in power

This time last year, Fine Gael was trailing Sinn Féin by about 10 percentage points in opinion polls under Leo Varadkar's leadership. Then came Varadkar's surprising resignation.

Simon Harris, who was in the relatively low-profile portfolio of further and higher education, research, innovation and science, quickly emerged as the candidate of choice and won the leadership without contest.

The "Harris hop" really kicked in over the summer, as he appeared at every dog and duck race around the country and almost every agricultural show to boot. Harris seemed to put huge store on the farming vote.

Perhaps there will be regrets that the general election wasn't called in early autumn. Fine Gael had stretched a significant lead out, with Sinn Féin dogged by internal issues. The decision was taken to present a final budget instead.

Once the election was called, Harris seemed to be in about three places at a time. Despite the energy, there were missteps.

The denial of responsibility for the sign-off of the children's hospital and the encounter with a voter in Macroom were big moments in an election campaign devoid of much by way of drama or atmosphere.

That said, Fine Gael has gained a couple of seats, has renewed its tired looking team of TDs, with 22 of the 38 TDs being first-timers. And a return to government, for an unprecedented (for them) fourth time in succession now seems inevitable.

Simon Harris is still only 38, with a TD for every year of his life to date in his party. He will be Taoiseach again over the lifetime of this Dáil. That's nothing to be sneezed at.

Mary Lou leads Sinn Féin recovery

I did write after the local elections that Sinn Féin had every chance of staging a recovery similar to that following a poor showing in the 2019 local and European elections.

Turnout figures suggested a significant cohort of people don't vote in those elections and then vote Sinn Féin when the Dáil election takes place. Nothing is certain in politics and Sinn Féin had work to do.

Farmers are one group of voters that the party has struggled for support from. Bringing Martin Kenny back into agriculture seemed to help - he was more front-foot than Claire Kerrane.

Party leader Mary Lou McDonald also attended an IFA pre-election national council meeting, getting a standing ovation on her arrival - the first Sinn Féin leader ever to sit with the IFA's ruling body.

It may all have helped, particularly in terms of transfers, as candidates were elected in later counts having picked votes up from all quarters. The challenge now is for Sinn Féin, as clear leaders of the opposition, to continue to engage with the farming community in 2025 and beyond.

The Left's awake

Both the Labour Party and the Social Democrats made significant gains in the general election. They won 11 seats each, meaning they held a combined 21 seats before the suspension by the Social Democrats of Eoin Hayes.

And this was achieved while Sinn Féin was also gaining seats. In part, this was due to the collapse of the Green Party vote, but the Social Democrats is establishing a strong base in Cork, taking seats in rural constituencies.

Holly Cairns' campaigning may have been curtailed by her pregnancy, but her party stayed relevant.

No I in MEP, but there is 'me'

The European elections saw some interesting outcomes. Some were predictable, such as the likes of Sean Kelly, Billy Kelleher and Luke Ming Flanagan retaining their seats.

But who would have predicted last Christmas that Ciaran Mullooly would become an MEP for Independent Ireland, having been taken under Michael Fitzmaurice's wing?

Or what about Nina Carberry who had swapped her racing boots for dancing shoes, maintaining Fine Gael's women's alliance in Midlands North West alongside Maria Walsh? The vote machine that was Mairead McGuinness was missed, but a balanced ticket worked in Fine Gael's favour.

The same could be said of Fianna Fáil in Ireland South, where Cynthia Ni Murchú ran a high-energy campaign, 30 years after presenting the Riverdance Eurovision, to take a second seat alongside Kelleher.

Kathleen Funchion did not have celebrity on her side, but ran a quietly effective campaign to win a seat for Sinn Féin at Mick Wallace's expense.

Sinn Féin failed to win a seat in Midlands North West, even though they won more seats up there in the previous and subsequent general elections than in the Dáil constituencies in Ireland South.

Again, candidate choice was the deciding factor. Michelle Gildernew has been a big personality in Northern Ireland, but voters just didn't warm to her campaign and the split vote meant Chris McManus didn't hold the seat he inherited from Matt Carthy either.

Ironically, Fianna Fail obtained more first preference votes in Midlands North West than Fine Gael, but while Barry Cowen's election never seemed in doubt, the decision to run three candidates scuppered both Lisa Chambers and Niall Blaney.

Meanwhile, in Munster, where Fine Gael gained more first preference votes than Fianna Fáil, John Mullins never looked like joining Sean Kelly on the bus to Brussels.

No right surge in the general election

The European elections saw a plethora of right-wing candidates, some identifiably far-right. And some of them gained significant votes, particularly Derek Bligh, who got 25,000 first preference votes and added over 13,000 transfers before elimination in the 16th count.

None of the candidates from the same end of the political spectrum in Midlands North West did as well, but there were quite a few, so the cumulative vote received was significant enough.

In the local elections too, a half-dozen far-right candidates won council seats, most were in low-turnout urban areas.

With the far-right on the rise in countries such as Austria, the Netherlands and Germany, there were fears that immigration would be platformed for electoral success in the general election.

It never happened. Not one candidate came anywhere within an ass's roar of a seat. Ireland, despite deep-seated and well-founded frustration over the housing crisis, refuses to embrace the politics of the far-right.