Opinion: the big election preview - part two

We're now only a few days from the general election.

This week, we travel from Donegal across to Louth, down to Kildare and back across to Mayo.

I also nail my colours to the mast regarding who will be elected across every rural and rural/urban constituency in the country.

Donegal - five seats

Charlie McConalogue’s home constituency will be keenly contested.

Fianna Fáil will hold a seat, but will it be the agriculture minister or running mate Pat the Cope Gallagher?

Sinn Féin’s national vote may fall, but they are set to retain two seats in Donegal through Pearse Doherty and one of Padraig MacLochlainn or Noel Jordan.

Fine Gael are not fancied, having had a dismal local elections in the county. With Joe McHugh’s defection, they field councillors Nikki Bradley and John McNulty.

Thomas Pringle is a popular, hard-working left-leaning independent and should hold his seat.

That leaves the second Fianna Fáil candidate in decent shape to double up, with the main threat coming from 100% Redress candidate Charles Ward.

Prediction: FF 2, SF 2, Ind 1.

Sligo-Leitrim - four seats

Martin Kenny topped the poll here last time, with over twice the votes of any other candidate. This time round, he shares the Sinn Féin ticket with recent MEP Chris McManus. Sinn Féin will need to increase their vote percentage to take two of the four seats on offer. Sligo-based Marian Harkin has been a proven vote-getter in Dáil and European elections and is set to retain her seat.

Fianna Fáil have selected three candidates as they strive to retain the seat Marc MacSharry won in 2020, before, including his cousin Edel, former TD Eamon Scanlon (both Sligo) and Carrigallen farmer Paddy O’Rourke.

Fine Gael, in contrast, runs just one candidate, sitting TD Frankie Feighan. Independent Ireland stands farmer, publican and councillor Michael Clarke in Sligo and Caroline Corcoran from Strokestown.

Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1.

Cavan-Monaghan - five seats

This is another Sinn Féin stronghold. Matt Carthy will lead the way, with Pauline Tully also set for reelection. Could they challenge a third seat? Only if both government parties have a bad day.

Fianna Fáil have former agriculture minister Brendan Smith and fellow outgoing TD Niamh Smyth, who famously chaired the RTE hearings.

Fine Gael, in contrast, run three candidates to defend Heather Humphreys seat and will expect to get one of TP O’Reilly (last man standing in 2020), Carmel Brady or David Maxwell home. Keep an eye on Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly.

Prediction: FF 2, SF 2, FG 1.

Louth - five seats

Fianna Fáil lost their previously permanent seat in Louth in 2020 and are ravenous to win it back. They field Erin McGreehan, a senator from the rural north of the constituency, whose brother Matthew is a well-known farmer and IFA representative. Running alongside McGreehan is broadcaster Alison Comyn, who is Drogheda-based.

Sinn Féin are defending two seats, with rising star Ruairí Ó Murchú joined by Joanna Byrne and Antóin Watters.

Fine Gael's hopes of defending the seat vacated by the retiring Fergus O'Dowd are complicated by the controversey over Senator John McGahon's street brawl. Paula Butterly is the other Fine Gael candidate.

Labour’s Ged Nash is popular and effective and should retain his seat.

There are no less than 25 candidates standing overall, with a bewildering array of independent and minor party candidates. Counting will take quite a while.

Prediction: SF 2, FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1.

Meath East - four seats

With the addition of a fourth seat, it seems likely that Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will all retain the seats they currently hold, but where will the final seat go?

Each of the 'big three' will be eyeing a second seat. Helen McEntee (FG) has Sharon Tolan rather than Regina Doherty (now an MEP) as her running mate.

Caroline O’Reilly runs alongside Thomas Byrne for Fianna Fáil, while Darren O’Rourke is joined by Maria White on the Sinn Féin ticket.

The Green Party finished fourth last time out, albeit well back, but Ruadháin Bonham cannot be discounted.

Labour stand Eilish Balfe - and keep a close eye on independent Gillian Toole. A former Fine Gaeler, she gathered 3,000 votes in the local elections in the Ashbourne area and has the backing of four fellow councillors and outspoken Senator Sharon Keogan.

The other big challenger could be Aontu’s Emer Toibín - sister of Peadar. There are 18 candidates in total, including Carolyn Fahy representing the Party for Animal Welfare.

Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, Aontú 1.

Meath West - three seats

Peader Toibín, the Aontú leader, is hard-working, popular and will retain his seat.

Johnny Guirke, the outgoing Sinn Féin TD, faces the challenge of holding off Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Aisling Dempsey, daughter of former minister Noel, runs for Fianna Fáil, while Linda Murray Nelson endeavours to retain the Fine Gael seat held by the retiring Damien English.

Prediction: FG 1, FF1, Aontú 1.

Kildare North - five seats

This constituency has gained a seat and lost long-serving TD Catherine Murphy. The Social Democrats can be no more than hopeful of holding the seat their founder and former co-leader is vacating, with Aidan Farrelly the standard bearer.

James Lawless will comfortably hold a seat for Fianna Fáil, as will Réada Cronin for Sinn Féin.

Bernard Durkan, the father of the house who has been a TD since 1981, apart from the nine-month term of the 23rd Dáil in 1982, leads a three-strong team for Fine Gael.

All three parties will be chasing a second seat, with Green Party senator Vincent P Martin hoping to take a seat.

Labour will hope Angela Feeney contends in a constituency where Emmett Stagg held a seat for many years.

Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, SF 1, Lab 1.

Kildare South - four seats (Ceann Comhairle Seán O Feargháil automatically re-elected)

While a bunch of constituencies have gained a seat since last time out, Kildare South is effectively a three-seater due to the automatic re-election of the Ceann Comhairle.

Fianna Fáil will be hoping Fiona O’Loughlin can join Seán O Fearghail in Leinster House.

Minister of State for agriculture and farmer Martin Heydon is set to hold his seat for Fine Gael.

That leaves one seat between the 14 other contenders. Patricia Ryan defends the seat she won in 2020, but defected from Sinn Féin on the eve of the election, with Shinagh Ní Raghallaigh standing for Sinn Féin this time.

Then there are outgoing TDs Independent Cathal Berry and Labour’s Mark Wall. It will be a nail-biter.

Prediction: FF 2, FG1, Ind 1.

Laois - three seats

This was last a three seater in 2016, when Sean Fleming, Charlie Flanagan and Brian Stanley comfortably won out.

This time round, Fleming is certain to hold his seat for Fianna Fáil, probably repeating his previous poll-topping performance. Stanley resigned from Sinn Féin two months ago, with Maria McCormack standing for his former party. The smart money is on Stanley retaining his seat.

With Flanagan retiring, Fine Gael stands farmer Willie Aird. One flashpoint could be Fleming’s running mate Austin Stack. He carries a famous republican name, but is a trenchant critic of Sinn Féin.

His father Brian, the chief prison officer in Portlaoise, was fatally wounded by the IRA in 1983.

Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1.

Offaly - three seats

Green Party candidate Pippa Hackett must be cursing the constituency redraw. Having finished sixth in the five-seater Laois/Offaly in 2020, her much higher profile following almost five years as a minister of state in agriculture would have given her an excellent chance of election this time.

However, her prospects in an Offaly three-seater look bleak, particularly as Independent TD Carol Nolan will poll strongly and probably retain her seat.

This has always been a Fianna Fáil stronghold and although the Cowen family are not standing for the first time since 1969, Claire Murray and Tony McCormack will hold a seat.

The expectation is that lone Fine Gael candidate John Clendennan will take the third seat.

Carol Nolan was first elected as a Sinn Féin candidate and may consume too much of that vote for current Sinn Féin flagbearer Aoife Masterson to be elected.

Prediction: FF1, FG 1, Ind 1.

Longford/Westmeath - five seats

The addition of an extra seat means opportunity knocks for almost everybody in the 20-strong field.

Fianna Fáil have an opportunity to consolidate the two seats they won in 2020, with both their outgoing TDs Robert Troy and Joe Flaherty standing, alongside Dympna Cunniffe.

Fine Gael also field three - Peter Burke, Micheál Carrigy and Tanya Cannon.

Sinn Féin augment sitting TD Sorca Clarke with Barry Campion.

Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, who was a little unlucky to lose out last time, will expect to be in the final shake-up as well. He’s Athlone-based, whereas three of the four outgoing TDs (Troy, Burke and Clarke) are Mullingar-based.

Joe Flaherty is Longford’s sole TD - can one of the raft of independents make a burst?

Paul Hogan - the Athlone councillor, not the Crocodile Dundee actor - almost won a seat for Sinn Féin in 2016, but stands for Independent Ireland this time and is one of their best prospects of a seat gain.

Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1.

Roscommon-Galway - three seats

This is the only constituency in the country to elect no-one from Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in 2020.

Denis Naughten is stepping down after 27 years, first as a Fine Gael TD, then an independent, across three different Roscommon-based constituencies.

The election is tinged with sadness, following the sad loss of John Naughten (Denis’s brother) who had been selected to stand for Fine Gael.

Ballinasloe Senator Aisling Dolan is instead running, alongside Dympna Daly-Quinn, who is from Arigna.

Michael Fitzmaurice, now of Independent Ireland, will be expected to hold his seat, despite losing thousands of votes to Galway East.

Fianna Fáil run Martin Daly from Ballygar, prompting Eugene Murphy, their former TD and a current senator, to now run as an independent. He’s based in Strokestown, in the heart of the constituency.

Claire Kerrane, Sinn Féin’s recent agriculture spokesperson, is based in Frenchpark, in north Roscommon, away from most of the other leading candidates, which helps her prospects of retaining her seat.

Prediction: FF 1, Ind 1, SF 1.

Galway East - four seats

This is another constituency that has gained a seat. Outgoing TDs Anne Rabbitte of Fianna Fáil and Independent Sean Canney seem set to retain their seats.

Fine Gael have a team of three endeavouring to replace the retiring Ciaran Cannon.

Declan Geraghty, having polled well in the local elections, carries Independent Ireland’s hopes in an area where Michael Fitzmaurice holds a lot of sway.

Louis O’Hara will be trying to make a breakthrough for Sinn Féin having gone close last time.

Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1.

Galway West - five seats

Fine Gael are battling to cope with retiring TDs all over the country, but in Galway West, it’s Fianna Fáil icon Éamon Ó Cuív who is stepping away.

On the evidence of the recent TG4 poll, he leaves a huge void, with John Connolly and Gráinne Seoige struggling to get a quota between them. This in a constituency where they once held three seats.

Noel Grealish has been a constant for over 20 years, first as a PD, now an independent, and will retain his seat.

Hildegarde Naughton is climbing the ladder within Fine Gael. Can her and former fellow TD Seán Kyne both gain seats?

Maireád Farrell of Sinn Féin and left-leaning independent TD Catherine Connolly are both favoured to retain their seats, being very popular in Galway city.

The other contender for the final seat alongside FF and FG is Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who departed Fianna Fáil earlier this year and topped the poll in the local elections. Independent Ireland have six councillors in Galway and will see this as a key target seat.

Prediction: FG 2, Sinn Féin 1, Ind 1, Ind Ire 1.

Mayo - five seats

The vote machine that Michael Ring has been will be a big loss to Fine Gael in a constituency they have dominated for a decade. Alan Dillon is now leading a four-strong team, with Fine Gael confident of two seats and with an outside chance of a third.

Fianna Fáil will be pushing for a second seat, with Lisa Chambers on the ticket with Dara Calleary.

Rose Conway Walsh will be confident of retaining her seat after a busy and high-profile term in office.

Chris Maxwell is the Independent Ireland candidate and will be disappointed with the low percentage he received in the TG4 opinion poll.

Aontú’s Paul Lawless and independent Patsy O’Brien are in the hunt for that final seat, according to the poll. O’Brien was expelled from Fine Gael some years ago - if he goes out, his transfers will be crucial.

Prediction: FG 2, FF 2, SF 1.

Rest of Ireland predictions

Last week I previewed the 15 more southern rural constituencies.

Here are my (probably wildly inaccurate) predictions for those constituencies

Kerry -five seats : Ind 2 SF 1 FF 1 FG 1

Cork South West-three seats: Ind Ire 1 FG 1 Soc Dems 1

Cork North West-three seats: FG 2 FF 1

Cork South Central-five seats: FF 2 SF 1 FG 1 Lab 1

Cork North Central-five seats: FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 PBP-Sol 1 Ind Ire 1

Cork East-four seats: FF 2 FG 1 SF 1

Waterford-four seats: FF1 FG 1 SF 1 Ind 1

Wexford-four seats: FF1 SF 1 Lab 1 Ind 1

Wexford-Wicklow-three seats: FF 1 FG 1 SF 1

Wicklow - four seats: FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SD 1

Carlow-Kilkenny- five seats: FF 2 FG 1 SF 1 GP 1

Tipperary North- three seats: FF 1 Lab Ind 1

Tipperary South-three seats: FF 1 FG 1 Ind 1

Limerick County-three seats: FF 1 FG 1 Ind Ire 1

Clare four seats: FG 2 FF 1 Ind Ire 1

Live election coverage next week

By next Saturday, it’ll be all over bar the counting. I’ll be here providing a live blog of election coverage, with a particular emphasis on candidates with strong farming links and how they fare.

I will not be making reference to my predictions, as I expect they will look foolish in seven days’ time.