Opinion: operation transformation needed to help government find their figures

The Programme for Government section referring to agriculture extends to over six pages. It contains 101 bullet points, each one a separate action point, but there are no figures.

Every sector is discussed. There are pledges and commitments to cattle, to sheep, to pigs and poultry, to dairying, to forestry, to renewables, to fruit and vegetables, potatoes.

It’s mostly a commitment to maintain or augment existing schemes and facilities, although there are some novel mentions.

For instance, bullet point five says the Government will “examine the feasibility of a scouring plant for wool in developing an Irish wool brand”.

Soon after that, bullet point seven says the Government will “examine facilities for processing of Irish crops and explore options for oilseed rape and milling wheat processing”.

It's all very long on aspirations and extremely short on actual commitments. There are no delivery dates for actions and absolutely no funds being spoken of.

Costed proposals

What’s curious about that is we saw both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael make extremely detailed and fully costed proposals for every sector in the general election in November.

In the week leading up to polling date, Fianna Fáil took a full-page ad in our paper - and in other papers - to highlight that their absolute financial commitment to farmers dwarfed their coalition partner. Fianna Fáil were pledging €317m to farmers, Fine Gael only €87m.

Both these parties have been in Government, so they would be acutely aware of the capacity of the national exchequer to deliver on these levels of funding.

Fine Gael have been in Government for 14 unbroken years at this stage. And yet, even the lower Fine Gael figures have melted like the snows of a fortnight ago.

Wheat mill prospects

I know a little of the proposed wheat mill. If it happens, it will be only a mile or two up the road from me.

Ballycarney Grain, run by tillage farmer brothers Andrew and Ray Kavanagh, has been examining the prospects for a wheat mill and the growing of milling-grade wheat locally to supply it for some years.

I know that outgoing Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue paid a visit to the proposed site in the run-up to the general election.

It's great that the Government is backing the project, but exactly what will that backing entail? Beet Ireland would probably warn the Kavanaghs not to get too excited about general encouraging messaging from government.

Michael Hoey, Simon Cross, Pat Cleary and co heard similar things, but no money was ever put on the table to help build a sugar processing factory.

Next week's Irish Farmers' Association (IFA) AGM will begin on Wednesday morning with Simon Harris as Taoiseach and Charlie McConalogue as Minister for Agriculture, but will end the following day with Micheál Martin leading the Government and whoever he announces as McConalogue's successor as the new minister.

Whoever attends representing Government, I have no doubt that the figures presented pre-election by their party and that of their coalition partners will be raised across every farm sector.

Heydon seems set for Agriculture House

There's been intense speculation in recent days (which, admittedly, I've added to and joined in) around the make up of the next cabinet. When you have a coalition with a pair of parties and a group of independents, it's much harder in theory to predict who's going to get various jobs.

Against that, there is far more gossip doing the rounds and there seems now to be general agreement about much of the likely appointments.

Ultimately, it'll be down to Micheál Martin and Simon Harris to choose the cabinet. We now know the 15 senior ministers will all be drawn from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

It will be an eight to seven split in favour of Fianna Fáil - that's pretty much assured now - and most portfolios will be rotated.

It seems inevitable that the agriculture minister will then be from the ranks of Fine Gael.

As I said in the paper on Thursday, the likelihood is that Martin Hayden will get it. He proved an effective Minister of State, working coherently with Charlie McConalogue and Pippa Hackett since 2020.

There was hardly a stray comment between the three of them, despite differing priorities.

Heydon's personable nature and his calmness may well be needed working alongside two independent TDs in Michael Healy-Rae and Noel Grealish.

It's now an open secret that the Kerryman, one of the most trenchant critics of the outgoing government, both in general and in relation to agriculture, will have responsibility for forestry.

Healy-Rae is a consummate politician, but now needs to make the transition from asking questions of Government to providing solutions.

He will point to a track record of success in Kerry, whether in relation to infrastructural projects or helping constituents avail of health services in Northern Ireland, funded by the Dublin government.

And that is true, but the challenges the forestry sector faces even approaching the targets set for it in the Climate Action Plan (which he has been a critic of) are of a different magnitude.

Noel Grealish has been in Government before, being a Progressive Democrat TD from 2002 to 2007. He actually led the party towards its eventual demise.

That is something Grealish could not be blamed for, staying at the helm of the ship even as it steadily sank and others left.

Since then, he has been re-elected in the Galway West bear-pit a further four times as an independent. He is a wily and capable politician, but, like Healy-Rae, now finds himself in Government.

Grealsih will actually sit at cabinet as a super-junior Minister of State.

If it comes to pass that they serve together, among the things to watch for is how Heydon as a Kildare farmer differs in relation to issues such as CAP payments to the pair from the western seaboard.

It's also likely that Fianna Fáil will retain a direct interest in the department, with Chris O'Sullivan tipped to become the Minister of State for the marine.

The Clonakilty man has shown a significant interest in all things nautical, both in his political and personal life, and seems a good fit.

A well-watched drama

The four of them - or indeed the four of whoever it will be if us pundits are all wrong - will be occupying one of the biggest goldfish bowls in all of politics.

Why do I say that? Well, the cartoon this week in the Irish Farmers Journal by the wonderful Jim Cogan was pretty accurate. If you're the Minister for Agriculture, you're being marked by the opposition, and Martin Kenny will be a robust examiner of all things agricultural. He certainly won't be alone in that.

Firstly, you've got the farm organisations - the IFA, the ICMSA, the ICSA, the INHFA, the grain growers and Macra. That's a lot of groups to deal with, most of them on every subject in a department with a very broad brief.

It was recently a bigger list. Most of the other farm organisations that sprang up in 2019 and since, such as the Beef Plan Movement, the IBLA, the Independent and Individual farmers, and in 2023 the Farmers Alliance, seemed to have gone fairly quiet.

Apart from the farm organisations, you also have ICOS, DII and MII, representing co-ops and processors.

Then there are the environmental organisations, who closely watch the agriculture minister's every move. Everyone from Birdwatch Ireland to An Taisce.

Then you've got the European institutions, the Parliament and the Commission, the vast secretariat watching and auditing how CAP funds are being spent.

And lastly, you have the likes of me, commentators and reporters. A dedicated agri media is watching one department intently. As many as 30 news journalists - and many more sectoral specialists - pore over every ministerial action and pronouncement across print and digital media, TV and radio.

Local radio stations all carry specialist farming programmes and local papers have sections filled with farming news and opinion.

You'd need a thick skin to deal with all that and get a good night's rest.

I wish the next ministerial team, whoever it will be, the very best of luck. But the handshake is followed by the sound of the whistle and once the ball is in and the game is afoot, no quarter is asked for or offered.