Grain prices have again been bouncing around over the past week, with upward and downward movements. Much of the market influence is now driven by politics and commercial decisions. Markets were watching Russia in anticipation that they would suggest some form of export constraint into the future as a consequence of the lower estimated internal production in 2018. But there was no announcement and prices weakened as a consequence.

Then, last weekend, one of the big UK-based bioethanol producers Vivergo Fuels announced that it was to cease production from the end of September. One assumes that this is temporary and a consequence of the high cost of UK wheat at the moment.

Last week, Argentina reintroduced an export tax on cereal exports. This had only a transient impact on the markets so far, but it will help to increase the interest in all future Australian crop reports and the WASDE from the USDA.

Native physical prices have not dropped as far as futures, but they have weakened as the market appears to be settling at a level off its peak. Dry wheat is now trading around €215/t, with barley around €220/t.

Currency and a weaker market resulted in lower delivered prices in the UK last week, with wheat closing down £6.50 to £7/t on the previous week. However, the impact on ex-farm prices was minimal, with wheat finishing the week at £172.40/t and barley at £166.90/t.