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What effect could a hard Brexit have on our beef exports?
The effect could be substantial but it very much depends on the terms of exit. Under WTO rules, boneless beef exported from Ireland to the UK would be subject to a standard 12.8% tariff on the value of the product, plus a €3/kg charge on the weight. If that were to happen, the price for beef in Ireland would have to decrease significantly to remain competitive in the UK if there was that hard Brexit scenario. Even under a free-trade agreement, there could be as much as a 5% increase in costs for beef exports due to country of origin checks.
What effect could a hard Brexit have on our dairy exports?
Similar to beef, Irish dairy exports to the UK could be hit hard by WTO tariffs, particularly some of the cascading tariffs on value-added products. Irish cheese exports to the UK would attract a standard tariff of €1,671/t to enter the UK, while the tariff on skimmed milk powder would be €1,254/t.
What could the operational cost of Brexit be?
It could lead to an 8% to 10% increase in costs. You also need to take account of time and customs procedures. Some of the customs offices in the UK are used to closing at 4pm in the evening and that’s not much good if you want to get your product shipped out to the continent.
If you’re shipping lambs from Ireland to France, you will try to get as many trucks as possible to meet that boat so it can transit directly to the continent.
Will this lead to more administration and paperwork?
If WTO rules come into play, exporters may have to inform UK customs that they’re coming and that takes time. Then, potentially, in a worst case scenario, you might have to undergo some checks as you’re going through the UK. That takes more time. And at the other end, as you’re coming into France, Irish hauliers could be caught up with UK hauliers for further checks. It‘s quite important that Ireland and France work closely together on this to ensure as smooth a trade as possible.
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Will Ireland’s dependence on the UK be recognised in the EU-UK trade deal?
Yes, I believe that it will. The fact that British prime minister Theresa May emphasised the Common Travel Area with Ireland as part of her 12 Brexit objectives, as well as meeting with Enda Kenny this week, is noteworthy.
What could this special deal look like?
I see freedom of movement across the island of Ireland (north and south) to continue in a similar manner to present arrangements. And there could be identity checks at airports for movement between Ireland and the UK. For trade, a customs union-type relationship (which may take the form of a transitional arrangement) would have a minimal effect. If the long-term UK-EU relationship is governed by a free trade deal, then some additional checks to verify country of origin may be required. This will necessitate some customs presence at borders but one would hope that e-customs procedures could help to minimise the level of paperwork required. If it is WTO, then a more visible customs presence will be needed.
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