This week’s Irish Farmers Journal reported on an 18% increase in Brazil’s beef exports in the first quarter of this year, which follows on from a 20% or 500,000 tonnes (t) increase in 2025 to 3.5m tonnes.
Beef exports from Brazil have been increasing substantially year on year throughout this century, but a report this week by the National Supply Company (NSC), a government agency in Brazil, suggests that Brazilian beef production is approaching a ceiling.
It forecasts that this year beef production will be 5.3% lower than in 2025 at 11.3m tonnes.
Despite this decline, it will still be the second-highest annual production ever in Brazil.
Last year's record production made Brazil the world’s largest beef producing for the first time, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, which goes back to 1960.
The report adds a qualification saying that the dividend from investment in “genetics, nutrition and management that have ensured greater productivity in the herd, the drop in production may be less than predicted”.
Export implications
It estimates that exports for this year will be 4.35m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE), which would be just over 3m tonnes product weight.
Again, while this would be lower than 2025, it will still be the second-highest on record. With the 18% increase in exports in the first quarter of 2026, it will require a sharp drop in exports for the remainder of the year.
The reason it suggest this is a combination of the drop in production plus the quota introduced by China which will discourage Brazil from exporting any close to the amount of beef it exported to China last year.
Pigs and poultry
Pork and poultry meat production is forecast to reach record levels in 2026. Pork production is forecast to increase by 4% this year to 5.88m tonnes and exports are expected to reach 1.58m tonnes, also a record, having passed 1m tonnes for the first time in 2020.
The upward trend in Brazil’s poultry meat production also continues, with production in 2026 forecast to exceed 16m tonnes - an increase of 3.6% to 5.34m tonnes.
This maintains Brazil as the leading supplier of poultry meat globally and sustained export growth is sustained by a low impact from avian influenza in Brazil compared with other countries.
Comment – Brazil could have reached peak beef
The growth in Brazilian beef production and exports over the past three decades has been extraordinary.
This era has overlapped with a parallel surge in demand from China for beef imports over the past 12 years. Now that China has effectively put a cap on imports with a penal 55% tariff on out of quota imports, market opportunities have become more limited.
Within Brazilian beef production, huge strides have been made with efficiency and productivity, but expansion through further rainforest clearance is more problematical given international sensitivity on the issue.
Even if Brazil’s beef production and exports do decline slightly this year, it will remain the biggest exporter by a distance.
With greater access to EU markets from next month with the Mercosur trade agreement coming into effect, it will be competing with Irish beef in EU markets to a greater extent than it has been at any time over the past two decades.
This week’s Irish Farmers Journal reported on an 18% increase in Brazil’s beef exports in the first quarter of this year, which follows on from a 20% or 500,000 tonnes (t) increase in 2025 to 3.5m tonnes.
Beef exports from Brazil have been increasing substantially year on year throughout this century, but a report this week by the National Supply Company (NSC), a government agency in Brazil, suggests that Brazilian beef production is approaching a ceiling.
It forecasts that this year beef production will be 5.3% lower than in 2025 at 11.3m tonnes.
Despite this decline, it will still be the second-highest annual production ever in Brazil.
Last year's record production made Brazil the world’s largest beef producing for the first time, according to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, which goes back to 1960.
The report adds a qualification saying that the dividend from investment in “genetics, nutrition and management that have ensured greater productivity in the herd, the drop in production may be less than predicted”.
Export implications
It estimates that exports for this year will be 4.35m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE), which would be just over 3m tonnes product weight.
Again, while this would be lower than 2025, it will still be the second-highest on record. With the 18% increase in exports in the first quarter of 2026, it will require a sharp drop in exports for the remainder of the year.
The reason it suggest this is a combination of the drop in production plus the quota introduced by China which will discourage Brazil from exporting any close to the amount of beef it exported to China last year.
Pigs and poultry
Pork and poultry meat production is forecast to reach record levels in 2026. Pork production is forecast to increase by 4% this year to 5.88m tonnes and exports are expected to reach 1.58m tonnes, also a record, having passed 1m tonnes for the first time in 2020.
The upward trend in Brazil’s poultry meat production also continues, with production in 2026 forecast to exceed 16m tonnes - an increase of 3.6% to 5.34m tonnes.
This maintains Brazil as the leading supplier of poultry meat globally and sustained export growth is sustained by a low impact from avian influenza in Brazil compared with other countries.
Comment – Brazil could have reached peak beef
The growth in Brazilian beef production and exports over the past three decades has been extraordinary.
This era has overlapped with a parallel surge in demand from China for beef imports over the past 12 years. Now that China has effectively put a cap on imports with a penal 55% tariff on out of quota imports, market opportunities have become more limited.
Within Brazilian beef production, huge strides have been made with efficiency and productivity, but expansion through further rainforest clearance is more problematical given international sensitivity on the issue.
Even if Brazil’s beef production and exports do decline slightly this year, it will remain the biggest exporter by a distance.
With greater access to EU markets from next month with the Mercosur trade agreement coming into effect, it will be competing with Irish beef in EU markets to a greater extent than it has been at any time over the past two decades.
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