With Brazil having exported 229,000 tonnes (t) of beef to China in the first two months of 2026, there was concern that the 1.1m-tonne quota could be exhausted early in the second half of the year.
Whenever the quota is filled - as it is expected to be - any additional beef from Brazil entering China will carry a tariff of 55%.
Given that China takes half of all Brazil’s beef exports, there had been increasing concern that filling of the quota well ahead of the year end could cause problems for marketing Brazilian beef in the closing months of 2026.
However, this risk has been downplayed by Abrafrigo - the Brazilian association of meat packing plants - in a recent statement.
It says that “with significant increases in shipments to the United States, the European Union, Chile and Russia, which should allow the world's largest exporter to cope with a restrictive quota for shipments to China”.
It also referred to disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East, noting that it “could be a detrimental factor to Brazilian exports this year due to increased logistics costs”.
Beyond this, it was confident that it could cope with the disruption, saying that it had “managed to redirect shipments or even operate alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz to deliver to Middle Eastern countries impacted by the war”.
Alternative markets
The United States is Brazil’s second-largest export market and has grown rapidly in the first quarter of 2026.
United States department of agriculture (USDA) import data shows that up to week ending 21 March, the US imported 75,754t of beef from Brazil compared with 53,292t in the same period last year, which had been a large increase on 2024.
This made Brazil its second-largest supplier of imported beef after Australia and Abrafrigo identifies that the lack of cattle supply in the US and consequent reduced beef production as an opportunity for its imports.
What will be of particular interest to Irish farmers is that they also identify the EU as another market with further potential.
They note that Brazil’s beef exports to the EU increased by 18.8% in volume over the first two months of 2026 to 14,170t, with the value increasing by 24.6% to $121.4m (€104.6m).
With the Mercosur trade deal coming into effect on 1 May, the EU will be an even more lucrative market for Brazil’s beef exports from that date onwards.
Comment – EU is most reliable option
The Brazilian meat industry also sees potential opportunities for other markets in Asia which are not presently accessible, but its government is working to have opened.
Both Japan and Korea are high-value and high-volume importers of beef that haven’t approved Brazil at present. As the Irish experience has shown, securing access to Asian countries tends to be a slow process and these may not be active by the time the China quota is filled.
As for the US, that market can certainly absorb volume given the low point of the national cattle herd. However, as last year showed, US tariff policy can be volatile and if high tariffs were reintroduced again for any reason in the coming months, it would cause major disruption.
That leaves the EU, which is the next-highest volume market after China and the US. Given the long-established trading pattern and already substantial volume of product being sold there, it could be the most reliable market of all for expansion in the second half of 2026 for Brazil’s beef exporters.
If that happens, it means more competition for Irish beef exports in continental markets, as well as the UK, where Brazil has been increasing its share of the market without a tariff deal.
Read more
Mercosur trade deal comes into force on 1 May
European Commission agrees provisional implementation of Mercosur deal
With Brazil having exported 229,000 tonnes (t) of beef to China in the first two months of 2026, there was concern that the 1.1m-tonne quota could be exhausted early in the second half of the year.
Whenever the quota is filled - as it is expected to be - any additional beef from Brazil entering China will carry a tariff of 55%.
Given that China takes half of all Brazil’s beef exports, there had been increasing concern that filling of the quota well ahead of the year end could cause problems for marketing Brazilian beef in the closing months of 2026.
However, this risk has been downplayed by Abrafrigo - the Brazilian association of meat packing plants - in a recent statement.
It says that “with significant increases in shipments to the United States, the European Union, Chile and Russia, which should allow the world's largest exporter to cope with a restrictive quota for shipments to China”.
It also referred to disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East, noting that it “could be a detrimental factor to Brazilian exports this year due to increased logistics costs”.
Beyond this, it was confident that it could cope with the disruption, saying that it had “managed to redirect shipments or even operate alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz to deliver to Middle Eastern countries impacted by the war”.
Alternative markets
The United States is Brazil’s second-largest export market and has grown rapidly in the first quarter of 2026.
United States department of agriculture (USDA) import data shows that up to week ending 21 March, the US imported 75,754t of beef from Brazil compared with 53,292t in the same period last year, which had been a large increase on 2024.
This made Brazil its second-largest supplier of imported beef after Australia and Abrafrigo identifies that the lack of cattle supply in the US and consequent reduced beef production as an opportunity for its imports.
What will be of particular interest to Irish farmers is that they also identify the EU as another market with further potential.
They note that Brazil’s beef exports to the EU increased by 18.8% in volume over the first two months of 2026 to 14,170t, with the value increasing by 24.6% to $121.4m (€104.6m).
With the Mercosur trade deal coming into effect on 1 May, the EU will be an even more lucrative market for Brazil’s beef exports from that date onwards.
Comment – EU is most reliable option
The Brazilian meat industry also sees potential opportunities for other markets in Asia which are not presently accessible, but its government is working to have opened.
Both Japan and Korea are high-value and high-volume importers of beef that haven’t approved Brazil at present. As the Irish experience has shown, securing access to Asian countries tends to be a slow process and these may not be active by the time the China quota is filled.
As for the US, that market can certainly absorb volume given the low point of the national cattle herd. However, as last year showed, US tariff policy can be volatile and if high tariffs were reintroduced again for any reason in the coming months, it would cause major disruption.
That leaves the EU, which is the next-highest volume market after China and the US. Given the long-established trading pattern and already substantial volume of product being sold there, it could be the most reliable market of all for expansion in the second half of 2026 for Brazil’s beef exporters.
If that happens, it means more competition for Irish beef exports in continental markets, as well as the UK, where Brazil has been increasing its share of the market without a tariff deal.
Read more
Mercosur trade deal comes into force on 1 May
European Commission agrees provisional implementation of Mercosur deal
SHARING OPTIONS