Back to basics for Irish provinces

This weekend brings us the first of back-to-back fixtures and over the next 10 days the playoff picture in the European Champions Cup will become much clearer.

To Munster first and the fixture gods have been kind with Clermont arriving to Thomond on Saturday night, giving Munster the chance to deliver a real knockout blow to the French side before they travel the following Sunday to the Stade Marcel-Michelin.

Limerick will be hopping on Saturday evening and it seems every company in the mid-west are having their Christmas party around this fixture. A sellout, a frail French side in town, the atmosphere will be electric and this can only spell one thing for Clermont. As talented as they are, they lost to Saracens in their opening game and that put them behind the eight ball. Munster’s pack are an eight ball of note themselves; they will smell weakness this weekend and they will win. Victory will give Munster some daylight in the pool and it will realistically knock Clermont Auvergne out of the competition. That’s important because a week later Munster need to take a losing bonus point at the very minimum from the return leg.

The real danger to Munster in this group are Saracens, who could bank as many as nine or 10 points over the next 10 days against Sale, who are already two defeats in the hole. Round five will see Munster go to London and that tie will decide the group winners, although there is every chance both could progress, with Munster in good shape for one of the three best runners-up spots.

This will get more confusing and complicated as we get to the new year but Munster could make a lot of that head scratching irrelevant if they win with a bonus on Saturday and go to to France and tough out a victory.

The squad look up to that. Their form is excellent and the right players are flying right now. The pack in particular are formidable. Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony, Tommy O’Donnell and honorary pack member Conor Murray are burning it up. They are dictating most games and arrive into this weekend on a high from their Irish autumn exploits.

Potential flies in the ointment include Saturday’s referee, Wayne Barnes. The Englishman wouldn’t be our favourite, although few would claim to enjoy his interpretations. He can, however, be prone to hometown decisions – and there won’t be any shortage of encouragement in Limerick on Saturday evening.

Munster are aiming for their 100th win in senior European competition and in doing so would square the record against Clermont to three wins apiece. The French side come into the game with a winning record against Munster: played five, won three. A win on Saturday and that would leave only three other clubs in Europe with a winning record against Munster, but we have the rest of the season to sort them out.

In the blue corner, Leinster, like Munster, sit top of their Pool with two wins out of two but must travel to The Stoop to take on Harlequins. Pool 2 is a two-horse race and these are the frontrunners. For Leinster, the task is simple: over the course of the two games they must win the aggregate contest. They can lose in London but must inflict more damage on the Quins a week later in the Aviva. Right now, the English side have 13 points in hand on the score difference. Erasing that over two weekends while not conceding any bonus points and winning in the Aviva wouldn’t be a bad two weeks’ work.

There are plenty of storylines surrounding this meeting. Harlequins are managed by the man who scored Leinster’s first ever try in European Cup competition (against Milan back in 1995): the one and only Conor O’Shea. They’ve only ever met once before in Europe and that was the infamous Bloodgate – a 6-5 Leinster win back in 2009.

This is a huge match for Leinster and represents a chance for them to put the pool away and lay down a proper marker for the rest of the competition. Against them will be the likes of English star full-back Mike Brown, open-side Chris Robshaw and Joe Marler in the front row.

Thanks to the English RFU’s need for money, their international side played last weekend in a bruising encounter against Australia while most of the Irish internationals were resting as our provinces played low-key PRO12 matches. That could stand to Leinster; that should stand to them.

With Ian Madigan in brilliant form, and Fergus McFadden and Dave Kearney approaching full fitness behind the scrum, the former champions are beginning to look the part again, while their pack is also on a high, back-boned by so many of the forwards who took the Boks and Aussies apart.

A lot of Irish rugby supporters like to see Ian Madigan at out-half but coach Matt O’Connor has a preference for Jimmy Gopperth and his kicking game. That lack of ambition might cost them at The Stoop. At the very least, Leinster should fly home with a bonus point – all four are not beyond them.

Ulster, alas, will not be progressing in the competition this year, with injuries ruining whatever chances they had. They can put up a valiant fight for second place by winning their remaining games but will struggle without the likes of Andrew Trimble, Chris Henry, Ruan Pienaar and Paddy Jackson. The Red Hand’s race is run for the European Cup but they can still put Scarlets to the sword in the Kingspan Stadium (Ravenhill, to you and I) on Saturday night. Pride alone will ensure that.

We can’t forget Connacht. They are riding high in the PRO12 (just one point behind Leinster) with six wins already in the competition, matching last season’s entire total. They also now have one Mils Muliana to join Robbie Henshaw in a very decent looking back division.

Good things are happening out west and we’re glad to be able to report that. This Saturday they have Bayonne in The Sportsgrounds in Galway and another European home win beckons. Irish rugby’s fourth green field is very much awake.

Three out of four wins this weekend and we continue our recent momentum. We’d be satisfied with that. Four out of four and we’d be absolutely thrilled.