Big guns keeping their powder dry

The schedule makers of the Guinness Pro12 would have been delighted with themselves when they sat down to map out the last round of the tournament some time last summer. Connacht, last year’s dramatic winners, travel to Munster, while Ulster and Leinster round out the Irish derby double. The same applies in Wales, Scotland and even Italy. How cruel it is therefore on whoever took a chance on those fixtures that only the Italian one matters.

The rest of the league has been laid out for quite a while now and barring major upsets, we will have a Leinster v Munster final in the Aviva on 27 May. Both of the Irish giants will have home semi-finals and both should have squads far superior than what will be Welsh opposition in the last four.

The only potential flies in the ointment are injuries and the fact that one week after the final, the Lions are due to play their first game in New Zealand. That shouldn’t be a consideration, of course, but these things never work out that way.

There will be a host of Lions playing in that final in the Aviva and if Leinster and Munster are involved, many of them will be flying out the following day. Together, as it happens.

So, picture the scene in Dublin that Saturday evening. A full Aviva, Munster having somehow turned the place red again and a cup final to be won. Players won’t be able to help themselves, throwing themselves into collisions and poor Warren Gatland won’t be able to watch.

It’s an old adage in contact sports that the day you mind yourself is the day you get injured. How many players will be thinking that over the next few weeks? That’s what makes this weekend potentially so dangerous. In a sport like rugby, a game that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme is one that is fraught with danger.

Connacht go to Thomond and there is talk that Conor Murray may start his comeback here. He has to play rugby before the Lions tour and a player like Murray can be pitched straight into a Pro12 semi-final or final, but ideally this Saturday would offer a possible gentle reintroduction to competitive fare.

The visitors still have big days ahead as they have the carrot of a place in the Champions Cup via playoffs. That daunting route would see them meet the seventh-place French and English teams in their league: that means a semi-final and final to win the coveted top spot in the premier European competition.

Pat Lam’s farewell season hasn’t really worked out that well, but Connacht have made certain of their place in that somewhat forgotten playoff series and perhaps this is the send-off they are saving themselves for, because they do seem to have tapered off in recent weeks. A squad as thin as Connacht’s cannot cope with major losses, Ultan Dillane and the now suspended Bundee Aki being just two of those. A scratch Munster team should comfortably deal with them on Saturday – we can only hope neither side picks up any long-term casualties.

Ulster have already checked out for this season and they shouldn’t spoil the Leinster parade either. Leo Cullen’s squad is the deepest in Irish rugby and can deal with most of what is thrown at them when key personnel go down, so expect a rest for the likes of Sexton, Henshaw and Sean O’Brien – Lions that will be minded for a week or two at least.

It is naturally sacrilege to suggest that our pre-eminent sides, Munster and Leinster, just a few weeks away from a likely sellout final against each other, would be pulling punches. It won’t be intentional and I have no doubt that Rassie Erasmus, like Leo Cullen, couldn’t ultimately care less about the Lions. But the players do. Whether those thoughts are lodged in the subconscious or closer, it will be a factor in this season’s end.

Tour-ending injuries suffered before the tour even starts are about the only certainty before the plane heads south. We can only hope our Irish stars are immune to such quirks of fate. The real rugby returns in a fortnight when the Scarlets and Ospreys come to Ireland and try to spoil our party. By then the big guns will be ready to roll. CL

New York summers

The GAA summer starts on Sunday night with the first round of the Connacht football championship but if you fancy travelling, it will cost you: it’s on in Gaelic Park, New York. There are worse places to watch a match, once you get used to the sight of a subway train passing on the far side of the field every 10 minutes. I spent a Sunday afternoon on the far sideline many years ago and ended up watching the faces of the people looking out of the train window as they wondered why a bunch of people were running around a field in a 100-degree heat, with sticks.

This annual fundraising trip has been happening for a while now without the exiles winning a game. Usually the Connacht counties visit New York, meet the cousins and expats, have the odd dinner dance, raise a few dollars, beat the exiles and come home nice and refreshed.

But last May changed all that when Roscommon, then flying high after a breakout season in Division 1, had the life scared out of them in the Bronx. They got out by the skin of their teeth, by a single late point, so Sligo are forewarned. That still mightn’t be enough though because my Big Apple kin tell me that this New York team have a right chance and have put all their eggs in the championship basket. It wouldn’t be the worst result in the world if the upset happened. Wouldn’t it be romantic if they, like London a few years ago, travelled a bit further in the Connacht championship? And then maybe down the road in the qualifiers at some stage drew Clare? In the Bronx? Sure I never miss a Clare match ...