Does your supermarket trolley look different to what it did this time last year? Chances are there are some adjustments at least because, for many, food inflation shapes our spending habits.

Grocery prices are now climbing at their fastest rate in two years with food inflation rising by 5% in the four weeks to 25 January – a time of year when consumers are already stretched after Christmas. Compared to this time last year, grocery prices are 6.8% higher.

According to Worldpanel by Numerator, consumers are really feeling the pinch. Emer Healy business development director at Worldpanel recently outlined that its latest pressure group study showed, “that more shoppers in Ireland are finding the current economic climate tough, with 31% feeling that they are struggling to make ends meet”.

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So how is that being reflected in our shopping trolleys? For one thing, own-label products are popping into the basket more and more – and they now account for 43% of grocery sales.

Shopping trends consistently show that when consumers are feeling the squeeze, own-brand products do very well. During the 2009 recession, they saw a huge surge. In the Celtic Tiger years, their market share stood around 9% but when the recession hit, they steadily rose to 19%. And they’ve been tracking well since then.

Looking to the UK, research by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) found that sales of lamb took a bit of a leap last year. There was a 3.8% increase in volumes purchased, accompanied by a 5.4% spend year-on-year. One reason was the increase in the price of beef – so consumers looked to lamb as a more affordable protein option, with pigmeat and chicken also filling some of the gap.

Farming families are both producers and consumers – they know as much as anyone that when budgets are tight, savings have to be made

Lamb on promotion sold especially well and retailers who didn’t run as many promotions felt the impact, with a decrease in sales. During the Christmas period, there was a lift in roasting joints of lamb. And then during healthy January, sales of lamb mince were up, with a 12% increase in spend. While this is UK research, its consumer trends always give good guidance on the trajectory of Irish food sales.

Rises in food prices need to be interpreted in light of the bigger picture. In the last two decades, food prices did not increase in line with other rates of inflation. In fact, in 2021, food prices were actually lower than they were in 2001. This was essentially unsustainable.

But we are feeling the impacts now in our wallets.

Farming families are both producers and consumers – they know as much as anyone that when budgets are tight, savings have to be made. And after insurance costs and energy bills are analysed, the next place to make savings is in the supermarket.

But it’s a nuanced conversation especially in light of farmers’ protests in recent weeks – in pursuit of ensuring the consistent quality of Irish meat.

Shop around and shop smart, certainly, but every decision has a cumulative effect and we need to continue to support Irish, support local, even when budgets are squeezed. Because we all want a continued healthy and profitable agriculture industry.