As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, the extent to which food and fuel will be used as weapons is becoming clearer – between them they account for almost 30% of global wheat exports and 19% of corn exports. As Anne Finnegan reports this week, Russia’s influence over the world fertiliser market, in particular nitrogen (N), will come centre stage – either in the form of sanctions by the west or through further manipulation by Russia of the price and availability of N on international markets.

A point that was not lost on Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who declared solidarity with the Russian president while confirming Russia will double its fertiliser supply to Brazil. It will be interesting to watch how Brazil’s solidarity with Russia influences future trade policy with the US, UK and EU.

Failed energy policy

Unfortunately the consequences of the EU’s failed energy policy and the undermining of energy security means any sanctions by the west must take into account the exposure of the EU energy market and, by association, food market to Russia. Sanctions that cause disruption to an already precarious EU fertiliser market could have major consequences on the price and availability of food in the EU – particularly if N supplies are disrupted or prices are further inflated.

At farm level, the focus should be to move early to secure adequate N supplies necessary to drive grass growth in the months ahead.