Sales of electric cars have grown over the last few years but the Government’s target, almost one million on the road by 2030, still looks very ambitious.

Petrol and diesel cars will no longer be sold after that date, with the intention that the fleet will eventually become 100% electric.

But in the year to August 2021, just 5% of all cars imported, new and used, were fully electric.

The full climate value of the shift to electric cars would be attained only when the entire fleet is fully electric and the power system fossil-free

Another 21% were hybrids which need conventional fuel and some hybrid models use quite a lot. The full climate value of the shift to electric cars would be attained only when the entire fleet is fully electric and the power system fossil-free.

Power engineers do not foresee a power system with no conventional generation whatever.

Electric models are becoming available in the light commercial category, but heavy vehicles could continue to be diesel-fuelled into the middle distance

Wind and solar power are intermittent and there will likely be some natural gas-generating stations in Ireland for many decades to come. Nuclear units, if suitable designs are developed, are a long way away. Electric models are becoming available in the light commercial category, but heavy vehicles could continue to be diesel-fuelled into the middle distance.

While it is unlikely that road transport will ever become all-electric, emissions from the sector are falling anyway as fuel economy improves.

If the world’s passenger car fleet contained only new 2021 petrol or diesel models, it has been estimated that emissions would fall by up to one-third.

Replacing older vehicles with elderly used imports dilutes this emissions-reducing effect

The reduction in emissions targeted for 2030 in Ireland will reflect the adoption of electric cars but also the steady replacement of the older gas-guzzlers with new petrol and diesel cars. Replacing older vehicles with elderly used imports dilutes this emissions-reducing effect.

Taxation

The State relies heavily on the taxation of road transport, via purchase taxes, an annual charge and fuel duties.

The Government has acknowledged that revenue is under threat – there are tax discounts to encourage electric car adoption and fuel duty revenue, weak in recent years, will eventually dwindle away.

The authors also fail to mention a worrying trend that has emerged in the most recent data

The report of the Electric Vehicle Working Group at the Department of Transport, released last week, is strangely reticent on this issue.

The authors also fail to mention a worrying trend that has emerged in the most recent data. Because of Brexit, used imports from the UK have become more expensive. Since new cars are cheaper in the UK because purchase taxes are lower, there had always been a levy on used imports which added up to 20% on to the UK price. This has now gone to 40% or a little more and used imports have fallen somewhat. But the average age seems to be rising, meaning that older and less fuel-efficient cars are coming in from the UK.

In the first eight months of 2019, the last “normal” year, 36% of used imports were three years old or under, but in 2021 the share had fallen to 29%. What seems to be happening is that many people, including first-time buyers, are budget constrained.

There is also a shortage of used cars generally in the country, according to dealers, and people are holding on to bangers

They buy used cars in the €7,000 to €10,000 range, and this now buys a UK import that is a year or two older than had previously been the case. There is also a shortage of used cars generally in the country, according to dealers, and people are holding on to bangers.

Grant

The numbers are such that the emissions benefit of the trend to electric cars is being offset by the changes to fleet composition.

New electric cars are expensive and the State is not getting much bang for its buck subsidising affluent, low-mileage Dubs

There is a further complication. Data on the geographical take-up of the home charger grant shows that electric vehicles are being sold disproportionately in Dublin, where annual mileage is known to be the lowest in the country. New electric cars are expensive and the State is not getting much bang for its buck subsidising affluent, low-mileage Dubs.

Car owners in rural areas have more limited transport choices and car ownership rates per household are notably higher than in the cities, as is annual average mileage.

A more manageable problem is the rollout of fast-charging infrastructure and adoption in the rural market will be slow until this programme is accelerated

A policy targeting rural buyers would get emissions down quicker, but it is very difficult to conjure up a supply of used electric cars in the price bracket which matters. Even in the UK, sales of electrics were modest five or six years ago and whatever supply is available finds buyers quickly.

A more manageable problem is the rollout of fast-charging infrastructure and adoption in the rural market will be slow until this programme is accelerated. Eventually, sales of petrol and diesel through the 1,600 forecourts in the country will diminish and many will become non-viable, a problem to which no attention has yet been paid.

More research needs to be done

The Department of Transport committee consisted of officials drawn from various Government departments, with no representatives from the car trade, the electricity business, or automotive fuel distributors. More research needs to be done on actual market functioning, and on motoring tax reform.