Beef forecasts show increase in NI supplies

Cattle forecasts show an increase in animals aged between 18 and 30 months of age on NI farms, which are destined for beef production.

However, the analysis produced by the Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) points to a relatively even flow of animals coming onto the market in the first half of 2025, which should help ensure there isn’t a negative impact on prices. The forecast is based on cattle numbers on NI farms on 1 December. Animals in the 24 to 30-month age bracket are up 22% year on year, which is just short of an additional 15,000 head.

Those aged between 18 and 24-months are up 7% year on year, although a large percentage have just moved into this age bracket from the 12 to 18-month range.

That would indicate a significant proportion are still in a store phase and unlikely to come onto the market until late spring or early summer.

The analysis also shows there is a significant reduction in beef cattle on NI farms aged under 18 months. Totals within the age bracket are down 26% or close to 14, 000 heads compared to this time last year, with the biggest decline in calves aged six to 12 months.

Price optimism

While LMC data suggests there will be an increase in slaughter numbers in NI during the first half of 2025, it is a different outlook elsewhere.

In Britain, animals between 18 and 24 months are down 0.6% with a further 4.6% drop in animals aged 12 to 18 months, equating to 47,000 fewer beef animals on farm.

Forecasts from the Republic of Ireland point to a 4% fall in the 2025 cattle kill, which is an estimated 71,000 fewer animals for slaughter.

Tight supply coming from both markets should help to underpin the local beef trade in 2025.