Opinion: the big election preview - part one

The general election is actually 43 separate mini-elections. Every constituency is unique, with candidate location, name recognition and the balance of party tickets key factors in determining who gets a seat. National support for a political party is only one indicator of outcomes at constituency level.

The strength of the ground games - canvassing and postering - is especially important in rural areas, where people expect to be personally contacted by the candidate or their support teams.

This election sees a fairly comprehensive redraw of the electoral map. Among the more drastic changes, Tipperary has once again been split in two, but this time with a sizable chunk of west Kilkenny lobbed into Tipperary north.

Wexford and Wicklow, formerly two five seaters, now share three constituencies and 11 seats.

Over the next two weeks, we will have a look every rural constituency that may prove to be bellwethers as to who will prevail nationally and lead the next government. In all, excluding the 12 Dublin constituencies and Limerick City, there are 30 constituencies to be assessed.

Here are the first 15. I’ll nail my colours to the mast for all 30 constituencies next week, a bit closer to voting day.

Kerry - five seats

Any conversation around the Kerry constituency starts with the Healy-Rae brothers. They took a third of the vote last time, easily pulling two seats. The next generation won three seats in June’s local elections, all topping their respective polls, so the brand seems in rude good health. Education Minister Norma Foley seems well-placed to retain her seat, as does Sinn Fein’s Pa Daly. All eyes, thus, turn to Billy O’Shea, who is attempting to succeed the retiring Brendan Griffin and hold a seat for Fine Gael.

That is not guaranteed at all, with challenges coming from Michael Cahill and Linda-Gordon Kelleher, who give the Fianna Fáil ticket a strong geographical spread in this most sprawling of constituencies. There are a raft of independent and smaller party candidates, one may shoot into contention, but to be honest, your guess is as good as mine in this most inscrutable of constituencies.

Cork North West - three seats

Cork North West is probably the most predictable contest in the country. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have shared the three seats here since its creation in 1981, but never before have both parties entered an election having both been in government.

Are there enough anti-government votes to take a seat?

The closest challengers last time were Becky Kealy of Áontú, who stands again, and Ciaran McCarthy of the Social Democrats. McCarthy has moved with his Ballincollig base to Cork North Central, Kealy is one of Áontú’s best hopes of a seat gain. Former Fianna Fáil agriculture spokesperson Michael Moynihan is the most experienced candidate now, as former Agriculture Minister Michael Creed is retiring. Creed’s cousin and namesake will be battling alongside Fine Gael colleague John Paul O’Shea.

Fine Gael are leading in the opinion polls, but if they are to turn votes into seats, they will have to wrest the final seat back off Fianna Fáil for the first time since 2011. Party discipline and vote management will be key in determining if that happens or if Michael Moynihan and running-mate Aindrias Moynihan hold on.

Cork South West - three seats

In sharp contrast, the government only holds one seat in Cork South West. Traditionally a Fine Gael heartland, it is still “Collins country” but the Michael Collins in question is the Independent Ireland leader rather than the man Fine Gael look to as their founder. Collins topped the poll in 2020, and will again.

It gets trickier to make predictions after that. Holly Cairns was a shock winner of a seat in 2020. Then she was a newly elected Social Democrats councillor; this time she is the high-profile party leader. Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan, the third outgoing TD, sits in the middle of the constituency. Fine Gael will be desperate to regain a seat, and have Senator Tim Lombard, dairy farmer and party ag spokesperson in the Seanad, in the east, with Cllr Noel O’Donovan in Clonakilty.

Independent councillor Alan Coleman and Sinn Féin’s Claire O’Callaghan are the other main contenders, both based east of Bandon. O’Callaghan has a running mate this time, Donnchadh Ó Seaghda from Skibbereen. Coleman is a former Fianna Fáil councillor, on his second run. With Collins and Cairns located west of that, Lombard might benefit from the western candidate congestion. It will be a battle royale for the final two seats.

Cork North Central - five seats

This constituency has had a significant boundary redraw, in the process being restored as a five-seater for the first time since 2007. Mallow is re-allocated from Cork East, Ballincollig from Cork North-West. It makes the constituency less city-dominated, but still more urban than rural - Ballincollig has over 18,000 people, Mallow a population of 13,500.

At the time of writing, there are 21 declared candidates, making this a minefield. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have three candidates each, including sitting TDs, Fine Gael’s Colm Burke and Fianna Fáil’s Padraig O’Sullivan. Socialist Mick Barry is a safe bet to retain his seat, while Sinn Féin’s sitting TD Thomas Gould has Joe Lynch as a running mate.

Ken O’Flynn, who comes from a Fianna Fáil dynasty but is standing for Independent Ireland, was a poll topper in the recent local elections and will be in the hunt. Labour stand two candidates, but not Sean Sherlock, who decided to retire rather than switch in with his Mallow base. Derek Blighe, standing for Ireland First, may be a far-right candidate, but cannot be discounted after gaining over 25,000 votes in June’s European Election.

This could well be one of those five seaters where no-one gets two seats.

Cork South Central - five seats

This constituency saw almost unprecedented power following the 2020 election. Micheál Martin became Taoiseach, his Fianna Fáil colleague Michael McGrath the Minister for Public Expenditure, and Simon Coveney became Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Martin stands again here, hoping to regain the Taoiseach’s position, but the younger Coveney has retired, while McGrath is Ireland’s EU commissioner designate.

With an extra seat in the mix too, it means there are seats up for grabs here. McGrath’s brother Seamus stands alongside his party leader for Fianna Fáil. Having pulled in over 5,000 votes in June's local election, the highest personal vote in the entire country, he is well-placed to win a seat.

Fine Gael fielding are a team of three, including Jerry Buttimer, a former TD. Donnchadha O Laoghaire topped the poll for Sinn Féin in 2020; can they contend for a second seat through Michelle Cowhey Shahid? The last seat could go anywhere - there are a raft of independents. The Green Party are standing Monica Peres Oikeh, while breakaway Rabharta Glas run their European election candidate Lorna Bogue.

Independent Ireland stand Veronica Houlihan. Labour field Laura Harmon, the Social Democrats Padraig Rice, while former Cork Lord Mayor Mick Finn runs as an independent candidate. One of these is likely to become a TD in a fortnight.

Cork East - four seats

Sean Sherlock’s retirement means a seat is up for grabs here, with John Mulvihill facing an uphill task to retain it for Labour. Fine Gael once had two seats here, but will Mark Stanton and Noel McCarthy essentially be fighting for Mark’s dad, David’s seat?

Sinn Féin will expect to gain from Labour’s weakening; Pat Buckley will be reasonably confident of retaining his seat. Fianna Fáil will be targeting a second seat here.

James O'Conor is so young he could run for Macra president in 2031, but instead is standing to retain the seat he won in 2020. Deirdre O’Brien running alongside him, pushing for the second seat. She is a sister of IFA North Cork chair Pat O’Keeffe; her brother Kevin and father Ned have both been TDs here.

Waterford - four seats

An urban/rural constituency, with the greater Waterford City area the base for all four outgoing TDs. Sinn Féin’s David Cullinan is one of his party’s most high-profile TDs, and is very likely to be re-elected. Mary Butler will also expect to retain a seat for Fianna Fáil.

Green Party TD Marc O Cathasaigh can point to perhaps the most successful greenway in the country, but government TDs from smaller coalition partners are often under pressure. Matt Shanahan was elected as an independent in 2020 primarily on health issues, can he repeat the trick this time around? Fine Gael will be targeting a seat here, with Senator John Cummins their lone candidate. Environmental activist and commentator Sadbh O’Neill stands for the Labour Party here.

Wexford - four seats

Wexford was already a dogfight before Mick Wallace threw his hat into the ring on Friday. Now it’s a bearpit.

The constituency takes in three of Wexford’s four main towns, Wexford, New Ross and Enniscorthy, but the hinterland of Enniscorthy north of the town has been ceded to Wexford /Wicklow. Outgoing TDs James Browne and Johnny Mythen are both based in Enniscorthy, as was retiring Minister Paul Kehoe.

James Browne will retain a seat from Fianna Fáil. Mythen faces a tougher challenge, but having lost out by only 52 votes in 2016 before topping the poll in the 2020 Sinn Féin tsunami, should not be discounted. Independent Verona Murphy has retained her south-of county heartland, but Wallace’s entry is a problem, they share the same geographical base.

Wexford town has long been a Labour party stronghold, and George Lawlor will hope to retain the seat Brendan Howlin held for 37 years, while Johnny Mythen will hope to retain his seat for Sinn Féin. Cathal Byrne and Bridín Murphy share the Fine Gael ticket, and transfers will need to be solid to elect one of them.

The ticket has gender balance, but is geographically lopsided. Add in local election poll-topper Jim Codd of Áontú and Fianna Fáil defector Michael Sheehan, who is based in New Ross (recently Fianna Fáil) and that’s nine candidates for four seats. The final seats mightn’t be decided before Tuesday.

Wexford/Wicklow - three seats

In sharp contrast to the two constituencies it is sandwiched between, Wexford/Wicklow has no sitting TD. This new constituency is a mix of rural areas and two big towns - Gorey and Arklow. Fianna Fáil’s Malcolm Byrne is by far the most high-profile candidate, with running mate Pat Kennedy hoping to pull the Wicklow vote.

Fine Gael are running former hotelier Brian Brennan, while Sinn Féin field Fiontann O Suillebháin. Logic suggests one each for the three main parties, but the fact that Byrne, Brennan and O Suilleabháin are all Gorey-based could open the door for a Wicklow candidate. Arklow independent Pier Leonard will need to connect with Wicklow rural voters to have a chance. Kennedy has a live chance of a second Fianna Fáil seat. With a smallish field, it could be one of the first wrapped up on Saturday.

Wicklow - four seats

Five outgoing TDs contest the four seats in the new Wicklow constituency, so this will be an epic battle. It’s a heavyweight list too, including Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, his cabinet colleague Fianna Fáil Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, Donnelly’s former Social Democrat colleague Jennifer Whitmore, Sinn Féin’s 2020 poll-topper Johnny Brady and Steven Matthews of the Green Party.

No party has realistic hopes of a second seat, although Harris has a member of the West Wicklow Timmins dynasty, Edward as a running mate. Shay Cullen quit Fine Gael following a controversial selection convention where he was edged out, and is running as an independent.

Joe Behan has been an independent since leaving Fianna Fáil in 2009, he is trying to win back the seat he lost in 2011. Donnelly is far from safe here, considering Fianna Fáil’s relatively poor performance in the local elections.

Carlow/Kilkenny -five seats

Votes and transfers don't travel from Kilkenny up to Carlow in large numbers, and the smaller county has often only held one of the five seats on offer. The standard bearer for the Dolmen county in the outgoing Dáil is Jennifer Murnane O'Connor, who forms an extremely strong Fianna Fáil ticket with John McGuinness, who is set for election for the eighth consecutive time, and former Kilkenny hurler Peter Cleere, from the tiny villlage of Skeoghvosteen, which is near the Carlow border, although it sounds like it should be in Healy-Rae country. Fianna Fáil are openly targeting three seats. Sinn Féin have held a seat here since 2016, but proven vote-getter Kathleen Funchion was elected to the European Parliament in June. Can Natasha Newsome Drennan, who lives on a suckler farm with husband John in Mullinavat, attract a farmer vote? It could prove crucial. her running mate, Aine Gladney Knox, is based in Goresbridge.

John Paul Phelan's retiral on health grounds means they also run without a sitting TD. David Fitzgerald is an experienced campaigner, based near Kilkenny city, while Michael Doyle hails from south Kilkenny, in the Rower Inistioge, Eddie Keher country for those of a certain vintage. Catherine Callaghan is the Carlow flag-flyer.Edged out in the local elections by a single vote, she farms and works as a special needs assistant. Her vote could be crucial in determining the overall outcome.

Malcolm Noonan, as an outgoing Green Party TD in a rural, intensive- farming heartland, might look vulnerable on the face of it, but he has performed effectively as a Minister of State. He looks in decent shape to hold his seat, but it is an extremely hard election to call, with the Carlow vote proportionately stronger due to the loss of that significant chunk of Kilkenny into Tipp North

Tipperary North - three seats

The rivalry between Tipperary and Kilkenny is nowhere stronger than along the country boundary. It has always been a political boundary - until now.

Michael Lowry is favoured to top the poll for the seventh straight election. After that, it’s hard to call.

This election sees Urlingford, Freshford, Johnstown and Tullaroan surgically attached to Tipperary North, once again a three-seater. How well will the transplant work? Canvassers for all sides report little other than fury from Kilkenny voters, and apathy toward the field of Tipperary candidates.

Despite all this, Michael Lowry is favoured to top the poll for the seventh straight election. After that, it’s hard to call. Jackie Cahill’s late withdrawal means Fianna Fáil are running two first-time candidates. Michael Smith will hope to follow in his father’s footsteps, while Ryan O’Meara will hope to succeed Cahill, who he worked for as an adviser. Labour’s Alan Kenny is the third outgoing TD, and he will be boosted by the addition of some parishes around his west-Tipperary base around Ballina, on the banks of the Shannon.

Phyll Bugler is the lone Fine Gael candidate, hoping to regain a seat for her party, they couldn’t win a seat in the five-seat Tipperary constituency in two disastrous performances in 2016 and 2020.

Tipperary South - three seats

A more homogenous constituency than its northern twin, Tipperary South currently has two TDs - Independent Mattie McGrath and Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne. McGrath is sure to retain his seat, Browne will be hopeful of keeping his. Michael Murphy is the Fine Gael candidate, he polled well in the local elections, as did his party in this constituency.

That may leave Fianna Fáil needing Imelda Goldsboro to unseat Browne to make a gain. Keep an eye out for Independent Ireland’s Nadaline Webster, known to farmers for her involvement in CRAG, the Carbon Removal Action Group. She is an impressive performer, and may come into contention as the campaign unfolds.

Limerick County - three seats

This is quite a rural constituency, basically the county of limerick shy of the Limerick city constituency area. Patrick O’Donovan was appointed by Simon Harris to the Higher Education ministry Harris had just vacated, and seems safe. Niall Collins is the Minister of State in the same department, so there won’t be too many scuds fired in either direction there.

Independent Ireland co-founder Richard O’Donoghue is the third sitting TD, last time he was an independent running strongly against the government, this time he is hoping to be supplant the Green party as a coalition partner.

This being Limerick, there are no less than three Collins running, although Niall’s running mate Bridie is no relation, being originally from Donegal. Sinn Féin’s Joanne Collins faces an uphill task to unseat any of the incumbents.

Clare - four seats

This is another incredibly competitive field. A four-seater, there are 19 hats in the ring, but only two outgoing TDs. That’s because Fine Gael’s Joe Carey is retiring on health grounds, while Independent Michael McNamara was elected to the European parliament in June. Fine Gael are running three candidates this time, targeting two seats on the back of their national popularity in opinion polls.

Former GAA county chairman Joe Cooney has a great track record as a vote-getter in local elections, will that translate on the bigger stage?

Fianna Fáil also field three candidates, including current TD Cathal Crowe and former government minister Timmy Dooley. Can they deliver in what was once called “Dev country”?

Violet-Anne Wynne, having taken a seat for Sinn Féin in 2020, had a very public falling out with the party, leaving within two years. She stands as an independent candidate this time, with Donna McGettigan running for Sinn Féin.

Independent Ireland’s Eddie Punch performed credibly in the European elections, and might be well placed to pick up a lot of the McNamara support base. He is well-known to farmers following two decades in the ICSA general secretary role. Roisín Garvey is standing for the green party for a second time, but with a much higher profile as the party's deputy leader. She may contend for a seat.

More next week

That's it for now. Next week we travel from Kildare to Donegal, taking in all Connacht, the midlands and the north-east. and I will make predictions for every one of the 30 constituencies I've looked at.