Ireland’s breeding ewe flock reduced by 15,271 or by just 0.6% to 2,458,600 million head in 2013. The marginal decline, revealed by the Department of Agriculture in the 2013 National Sheep and Goat Census, contributed to total sheep numbers falling by about 50,000 head, or 1%, to 3,530,802.

While any reduction in the national flock is undesirable, a decrease of this small magnitude is relatively positive considering the difficulties experienced throughout 2013, including the fodder crisis, Schmallenberg virus, and higher mortality due to liver fluke.

Nevertheless, the decline does halt three years of growth and must be viewed as a warning, especially with current plans to subsume the Grassland Sheep Scheme into flock owners’ single farm payments, removing an incentive to maintain flock numbers.

Hidden changes

The 15,271 reduction in breeding ewes masks the significant increases and decreases in different counties. As can be seen in Figure 1, three counties recorded considerable growth, with 4,917 ewes added in Kerry, 4,657 in Donegal and 3,845 in Mayo. Only three other counties recorded growth, with Cavan increasing ewe numbers by 1,521, Sligo 878 and Clare 299, while Dublin remained on a similar footing to last year.

Every other county recorded a decline in breeding ewe numbers. Galway was worst affected, with a reduction of 5,703 ewes. It is interesting to note that this reduction in Galway and Mayo’s increase has resulted in a switch in positions, with Mayo now possessing the second-largest ewe flock. Two counties experienced a drop in ewes of greater than 3,000 head. They were Meath (4,193 ewes) and Roscommon (3,634). Wexford and Kilkenny were next with falls of 2,592 ewes and 2,038 ewes respectively.

The big four

There are eight counties with over 100,000 ewes, with four of these possessing in excess of 230,000 ewes. These are, in order of flock size, Donegal (314,962), Mayo (268,757), Galway (265,869) and Kerry (231,695). If you add their ewe numbers, the four largest counties between them possess 1.08 million ewes or 44% of the total national breeding ewe flock. These counties are also among the top five counties on an area basis and more significantly have a high percentage of hill and marginal lands, giving rise to a strong combination of hill and lowland ewe flocks.

Total sheep drop 48,417

Figure 2 shows that most counties experienced a decline in total sheep numbers, with numbers falling by 48,417 or 3% when compared to 2012 levels. The ‘other sheep’ category, which includes all sheep less than 12 months old, was the main contributor, with 29,608 less sheep on farms in December 2013. The reduction can be linked to a number of factors. Firstly, breeding conditions in 2012 were far from suitable, leading to a reduced lambing percentage in spring 2013.

Grass growth in the latter half of 2013 was well above normal levels (and well superior to 2012), with higher numbers of lambs finished and a lower carryover of store lambs while a final contributing factor could have been fewer ewe lambs retained as breeding replacements.

Galway experienced the greatest decline of 11,074 sheep, which is not overly surprising given the drop in breeding ewe numbers. Wexford and Carlow, on the other hand, recorded reductions of 10,266 and 8,199 respectively. The reasons behind such a drop are not known, with the number of flockowners not changing significantly. Contributing factors could include reduced sheep numbers due to the Schmallenberg virus or very favourable grazing conditions witnessing lambs finish earlier or allowing cattle to be retained outdoors for longer and taking away the requirement to purchase large numbers of store lambs.

FLOCKS: Positive lift in number of flock owners

According to the census, the number of flock owners farming sheep in December 2013 increased by 1%, or 256 new flocks, to 34,304.

This is the third successive year in which the number of flock owners increased, with a rise of 282 in 2012 and 1,600 in 2011. It is likely that the rise in flock owners could have been positively influenced by strong grass growth attracting store lamb finishers into sheep production towards the end of 2013.

A county-by-county flock breakdown for 2012 and 2013 is shown in Figure 2. It stands to reason that the counties with the highest number of sheep are also those with the highest number of flocks. However, when you progress beyond the top four or five counties, flock size will also have an impact on the number of flocks per county. Wicklow, Waterford and Kildare are prime examples of this. Wicklow has the highest average number of sheep per county at 178 head. This is followed by Kildare with an average of 157 sheep per flock and Waterford with 150 sheep per flock. Dublin has the lowest number of flocks at 188 flocks while Cavan has the lowest average flock size with just 36 sheep per flock.

The national average flock size reduced marginally from 105 sheep per flock to 103 sheep. This is the same level as in 2011. Figure 4 shows the percentage and number of flocks within certain flock sizes. There are approximately 67% of flocks with a flock size below the national average, with 42.8% or 14,676 flocks having less than 50 sheep. The number of flocks with greater than 500 sheep per flock has fallen by 23 to 646 flocks.

Total ram numbers have fallen from 80,107 in December 2012 to 76,569 in December 2013. This excludes breeding rams less than one year old. Taking mature rams over one year old in December 2013, there are on average of 32 ewes to every ram in the country. This figure is likely to fall to the mid-to-high 20s when ram lambs are added to the calculation.

OUTLOOK

Potential for continued recovery

As we have seen for the last three years, changes in flock size are most often influenced by factors outside our control, with sheep price and increased input costs (weather-related) having the greatest impact.

As it stands, there is a relatively positive mood among sheep farmers, with favourable breeding and lambing periods leading to a higher lamb crop. A steady market would instil higher levels of confidence heading into the second half of the year.

This would put more life into breeding sales and most likely encourage the retention of adequate numbers of ewe lambs to maintain or grow the breeding ewe flock. In the absence of a steady lamb trade, there is a concern that breeding sales may fail to live up to the anticipation being created following the slaughter of increased numbers of ewe hoggets this spring.

There is also the concern that a change in the payment regime of the Grassland Sheep Scheme will remove the incentive for farmers to retain flock size.

For hill lamb producers, who farm in the region of 400,000 hill ewes, there are a number of underlying factors at play. The absence of a light lamb market has hit returns hard in the last two to three years. Added to this are very real worries surrounding impending commonage framework rules and eligibility criteria for the forthcoming GLAS scheme requiring shareholders to come to collective agreements in farming commonages.

There is no doubt that the potential is present for continued recovery and growth – it does however require a number of factors falling into place to achieve it.

GOATS: 44% increase in goats to 12,182 head

The number of goats recorded on the 2013 National Sheep and Goat Census increased 44% or from 8,480 goats in December 2012 to 12,182 in December 2013. The 3,702 head increase comes however from a change in the recording procedure rather than a rapid increase in the number of goats on farms. The census report explains that combining the census return in 2013 to include sheep and goats on a single application identified many registered flockowners who also possessed a small number of goats but were not registered as a keeper. As a result, it says that the number of goats recorded in previous years was likely to be underestimated.

The significant change has also resulted in a doubling in the number of herds to 945 herds and a steep decline in the average herd size from 19 goats in 2012 to 13 goats in 2013. Table 1 shows the number of goats and number of herds by size of herd. 2012 data is included inside the brackets.