International wheat prices remain under pressure following a USDA end-of-season stock estimate of 268.42Mt. This figure led to a further decrease in futures prices, which appear to have levelled off and recovered slightly. But it is important to put this comment in context. December 2018 Chicago wheat futures have floated as low as $4.70/bushel in recent days from up around $6.10/bu in mid-July (€147 vs €191/t).

World wheat production in 2017/18 is now put at a record 755.2Mt and this goes a long way to explaining some of the price pressure. This is mainly a consequence of the large central European harvest output and, more recently, the higher Canadian output estimates.

While supply has been the major pressure in the market for the past few months, there will be increasing focus on the crop in the ground in the months ahead. Already there are concerns regarding the risks facing the US hard red winter wheat crop. Late planting and lack of snow cover make the crop very susceptible to frost damage, but it must be said that this is a fear and not a problem yet.

Native prices continue to have a slightly weaker tone against this background supply pressure and especially against low-priced imported maize. Spot prices remain broadly similar to previous weeks at €175 and €173/t for wheat and barley. Further-out price offers are trending downwards to nearby positions. New crop is also tending lower at €172/t for next December.