Big three saw mixed market returns in 2025

February is always a busy month in financial markets, as companies listed on stock exchanges update their shareholders on the performance over the previous years and give guidance on what to expect in the coming 12 months.

For Irish farmers, there are three such companies that – for mostly historical reasons – hold special interest: Kerry Group, Glanbia and FBD insurance.

Kerry

It is fair to say that Kerry is by far the largest of these and is also the one with the most disappointing stock-market performance over 2025. The announcement of the sale of Kerry Dairy Ireland to Kerry Co-op at the start of the year gave the company’s share price a lift, but since then the market has reduced its enthusiasm for the company.

Many of the headwinds facing Kerry are due to factors beyond its control. As a global ingredients manufacturer in the taste and flavour sector, it has faced twin challenges from the policies of the Trump administration in the US. Firstly, the level of uncertainty caused by the US president’s trade policies has had an effect on all companies with a global footprint as wide as Kerry’s. The weakening of the US dollar against the euro (the currency Kerry reports earnings in) will also have had an effect. In its update to investors at the half-way point of 2025, Kerry said that foreign currency translation is “expected to be a headwind of 4%-5% on adjusted earnings per share in 2025”.

The second challenge for Kerry from the Trump administration is the interest expressed by Robert Kennedy Jr, the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, in the elimination of ultra-processed food under the banner of ‘Make America Healthy Again’.

As a major food ingredient supplier, Kerry has seen investors become cautious about increasing their exposure to companies which may be in the administration’s sights. This is not solely a problem for Kerry, with peers such as International Flavors & Fragrances also seeing a disappointing performance during 2025.

All that being said, the disappointing performance of Kerry over the last few years is notable. The company has engaged in share buybacks since 2023, and has repurchased approximately €1.2bn worth of its own shares since then. It is unclear how effective this programme has been in supporting the company’s share price.

However, when looking at the company’s market capitalisation – the number of shares in issue multiplied by the price of those shares, which tells us what the stock market thinks the company is worth – we can see that it closed 2025 valued at €12.3bn, €3.25bn less than it was at the start of the year, and €8.5bn below the level seen in 2021 (see Figure 1).

Glanbia

Last year was a significantly better year for Glanbia, from a stock-market performance perspective, even if there were times during the year where things appeared to be going off the rails a bit.

An opening price of €13.33 on 1 January and a closing price of €14.59 on 21 December suggests a year of solid growth, but that is before we factor in the plunge to as low as €9.31 in April, followed by a climb back through the second half of the year (see Figure 2).

Glanbia’s year is, in some ways the opposite of Kerry’s. The company reports in US dollars, so should have fewer of the earnings concerns about that weakening currency. Also, its leading products – based on whey protein – are more popular than ever, driven by changes in the key US market.

Consumers there have become increasingly aware of protein supplements as the popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss treatments increases. Recent analysis by Morgan Stanley suggests US protein consumption will expand by 5% per year over the coming years.

In fact, the drop in the company’s share price in the early part of the year was largely driven by concerns over Glanbia’s ability to source sufficient whey protein in order to continue to meet orders.

The start of 2026 has seen a lot of interest in the company’s shares, with them trading in early February above €17 each, the highest level since mid-2024.

FBD

The third company of Irish farmer interest is FBD. The insurer is significantly different from Kerry and Glanbia in many ways, not least of which is that it is almost exclusively focused on the Irish market.

The business it is in, insurance, is a well developed one here, so year to year performance is governed by maintaining market share, the costs involved in any major insurance events, such as storm Éowyn, and the performance of the company’s investment portfolio. In the stock market, FBD’s shares have seen a solid performance over the past five years, rising from €7.44 a share in January 2021 to €15.60 a share at the end of 2025.

Since the reintroduction of dividend payments in May 2022, the company has paid total dividends per share of €6.75, meaning that anyone who bought shares in 2021 would almost have their investment repaid already in dividends alone.

FBD is, by market capitalisation, significantly smaller than either Glanbia, which is six times larger or Kerry, which is 18 times its size. It is also a tightly held company – meaning there is not a huge amount of liquidity in its share trading as owners of the shares tend not to sell them.

It is not unusual for only a couple of hundred shares in the company to trade in one day, whereas daily trade in Kerry or Glanbia is measured in hundreds of thousands of shares.

Farmer Business Developments plc owns around 21% of the ordinary shares in the company, while the FBD Trust has increased its holding of ordinary shares over recent years to almost 15%. Many of the other shareholders in the company are individuals who have held their stake since the founding of the insurer.

Kerry Group reports 2025 earnings on Wednesday 18 February, Glanbia on Wednesday 25 February and FBD on Friday 6 March.

Comment

Between trade disruptions, currency fluctuations, changing consumer habits, volatile Government policies and even inclement weather, it certainly hasn’t been a quiet year for shareholders in the main listed companies of Irish farmer concern.

The holdings in those companies by Irish farmers are generally there for historical reasons – in the cases of Kerry and Glanbia it goes back to their co-op roots, and for FBD it goes back to its initial founding by farmers as a farmer insurer.

With that history comes a strong sense of loyalty among those shareholders. While loyalty to a co-op or a small business makes perfect sense, it could be misplaced when it comes to a large multinational company.

The ownership of shares in a listed company should be viewed as little more than a financial asset. If the asset is not providing the return that is required, or even worse, costing money, then it should be offloaded and another purchased that has better prospects.

There are not many farmers who would keep a cow which continually fails to get in calf in the hope that she might have better luck next year. They’ll replace her with one which will do the job. The same should true of company shareholdings. If its not performing, then hoping for better luck next year is not a policy that will pay off. There are plenty of alternatives out there that require only a small amount of research (and a chat with a qualified financial advisor) that could well see better returns over the long term.