The US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) recently published the export data for August, which had been delayed due to the US government shutdown.
While pork exports remained what USMEF described as relatively strong, it was a much bleaker picture for beef exports.
Total beef exports for the month were 83,388t, down 19% compared with August 2024 and the lowest monthly total since February 2021.
For the year to the end of August, beef export volumes were 9.5% lower than for the same period last year at 775,188t.
There are two major issues for US beef exports in 2025. The first of these is that overall production has been on a downward trend, as cattle numbers have declined to the point where the national cattle herd is at its lowest point for over 70 years.
China factor
The second issue is the US trade relationship with China, which has been disrupted this year by US tariff policy and retaliation by China to it.
This has taken the form of retaliation tariffs, but what has been even more damaging is the failure of China to renew licenses for US beef processing and storage facilities that export to China.
Licenses that have been expiring since March this year have not been renewed for US beef exporters, even though they have been renewed for pork exporters.
This means that US beef exports to China ground to a virtual halt in August, with just 862t exported, down a massive 94% compared with August 2024.
The expectation is that it will be even lower in September and October.
Other markets
All of the major export markets for US beef showed a decline in August compared with 2024.
Japan remains the top market, taking 19,416t, down from 20,585t in August 2024. Korea, the second-largest export market, was also down year on year, falling from 17,128t in August 2024 to 16,823t in August this year.
Mexico showed a particularly sharp decline, down from 19,037t in August last year to 15,771t in August this year.
One market that showed a modest improvement was the UK and EU, which combined received 1,494t of US beef exports this year, up from 1,385t in the same month last year.
Comment – trade policy and supply shortage bites into exports
The US has a unique place in the global beef trade as the world's second-largest import market and despite the decline this year, will be the third-largest beef exporter.
This is because US consumers use more lower-value cuts of the beef in burgers and wider food service than high-value cuts. This means these are the main beef export products, while lower-value forequarter beef is the main import.
This year, US trade policy has been volatile with the introduction and removal of import tariffs on a frequent basis.
Trade partners have responded with retaliatory tariffs in many cases and this has caused a major disruption to exports.
Even without trade issues, volumes would have likely declined this year anyway because of lower production due to a shrinking cattle herd.
Trade is likely to remain volatile and herd rebuilding will take years, not months.
Read more
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The US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) recently published the export data for August, which had been delayed due to the US government shutdown.
While pork exports remained what USMEF described as relatively strong, it was a much bleaker picture for beef exports.
Total beef exports for the month were 83,388t, down 19% compared with August 2024 and the lowest monthly total since February 2021.
For the year to the end of August, beef export volumes were 9.5% lower than for the same period last year at 775,188t.
There are two major issues for US beef exports in 2025. The first of these is that overall production has been on a downward trend, as cattle numbers have declined to the point where the national cattle herd is at its lowest point for over 70 years.
China factor
The second issue is the US trade relationship with China, which has been disrupted this year by US tariff policy and retaliation by China to it.
This has taken the form of retaliation tariffs, but what has been even more damaging is the failure of China to renew licenses for US beef processing and storage facilities that export to China.
Licenses that have been expiring since March this year have not been renewed for US beef exporters, even though they have been renewed for pork exporters.
This means that US beef exports to China ground to a virtual halt in August, with just 862t exported, down a massive 94% compared with August 2024.
The expectation is that it will be even lower in September and October.
Other markets
All of the major export markets for US beef showed a decline in August compared with 2024.
Japan remains the top market, taking 19,416t, down from 20,585t in August 2024. Korea, the second-largest export market, was also down year on year, falling from 17,128t in August 2024 to 16,823t in August this year.
Mexico showed a particularly sharp decline, down from 19,037t in August last year to 15,771t in August this year.
One market that showed a modest improvement was the UK and EU, which combined received 1,494t of US beef exports this year, up from 1,385t in the same month last year.
Comment – trade policy and supply shortage bites into exports
The US has a unique place in the global beef trade as the world's second-largest import market and despite the decline this year, will be the third-largest beef exporter.
This is because US consumers use more lower-value cuts of the beef in burgers and wider food service than high-value cuts. This means these are the main beef export products, while lower-value forequarter beef is the main import.
This year, US trade policy has been volatile with the introduction and removal of import tariffs on a frequent basis.
Trade partners have responded with retaliatory tariffs in many cases and this has caused a major disruption to exports.
Even without trade issues, volumes would have likely declined this year anyway because of lower production due to a shrinking cattle herd.
Trade is likely to remain volatile and herd rebuilding will take years, not months.
Read more
US beef price could hit $10/lb claims processor
Positive consumer sentiment for animal protein in US
Trump tariff reversal will make US beef imports cheaper
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