As 2025 draws to a close, US beef exports have fallen back to levels last seen in 2020.
While retaliatory tariffs may have contributed, the big issue has been the drop in available supply of beef as a result of the cattle herd falling to its lowest point in over 70 years.
The United States department of agriculture (USDA) publishes the numbers biannually, with the next one for 1 January due to be released just over a month from now at the end of January 2026.
Release of US government data was also disrupted during the autumn of 2025, with the shutdown in government because political agreement on the budget couldn’t be reached for several weeks.
The backlog has meant that the meat export data for September was only released in December, a month later than usual by the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF).
September beef exports
As expected, beef export volumes in September declined again, down 22% compared with September last year to 80,835 tonnes, the lowest monthly total since June 2020.
Exports for the year to September are running 11% behind the same period last year at 856,023t.
Despite the reduction on tariffs between the US and China, there has been no positive impact for US beef exporters.
This is because since March this year, China hasn’t been renewing export approvals for US beef exporters and, therefore, US beef exports to China have all but ceased, with just 556t shipped in September, down 96% on September 2024.
Trade relations overall between the US and China have been difficult this year. An investigation was launched on 16 December by the office of the US trade representative (USTR) on China’s implementation of the US-China economic and trade agreement, which was agreed at the beginning of 2020.
This was known as the 'phase one agreement' and designed to resolve trade issues between the countries. The failure to renew beef export licenses is considered by the industry to be a violation of the deal.
Other markets
The other main export markets in Asia for US beef also recorded declines in September.
Japan is the largest US beef export market and volumes in September were down 12% to 17,018t and for the nine months to the end of September, exports were down 4% from a year ago to 181,487t.
South Korea, traditionally the second-largest export market, also showed a sharp decline in September, with the volume down 3,300t to 14,810t.
This had the effect of making Mexico the second-largest export market in September on 16,862t.
Pork exports
Despite a small drop in volumes, USMEF considers it to be a solid performance by US pork exports in 2025, though in September there was a 2% volume drop compared with last September to 233,816t.
For the year to date, US pork exports are 2.16m tonnes, which is 3% lower than the first nine months of 2024.
There was a strong performance in exports to Mexico, with volume up 16% in September to 106,472t, bringing the total for the year to the end of September to 888,077t, some 4% higher than for the same period last year.
Despite a sharp fall in pork exports to China, it remained the second-largest export market in September, taking 29,561t ahead of Japan which took 21,815t.
Comment – less US beef creates opportunity for other exporters
There has never been any real competition between Irish and US beef in export markets.
However, the drop in US export volumes is of indirect relevance to Irish beef producers and exporters.
This is because the drop in US supply to Asian markets is being picked up by Australia and the main South American beef-exporting countries.
As they have increased demand from Asia, it makes them less active in the UK and EU markets than they might otherwise be and where they would be in direct competition with Irish beef.
As 2025 draws to a close, US beef exports have fallen back to levels last seen in 2020.
While retaliatory tariffs may have contributed, the big issue has been the drop in available supply of beef as a result of the cattle herd falling to its lowest point in over 70 years.
The United States department of agriculture (USDA) publishes the numbers biannually, with the next one for 1 January due to be released just over a month from now at the end of January 2026.
Release of US government data was also disrupted during the autumn of 2025, with the shutdown in government because political agreement on the budget couldn’t be reached for several weeks.
The backlog has meant that the meat export data for September was only released in December, a month later than usual by the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF).
September beef exports
As expected, beef export volumes in September declined again, down 22% compared with September last year to 80,835 tonnes, the lowest monthly total since June 2020.
Exports for the year to September are running 11% behind the same period last year at 856,023t.
Despite the reduction on tariffs between the US and China, there has been no positive impact for US beef exporters.
This is because since March this year, China hasn’t been renewing export approvals for US beef exporters and, therefore, US beef exports to China have all but ceased, with just 556t shipped in September, down 96% on September 2024.
Trade relations overall between the US and China have been difficult this year. An investigation was launched on 16 December by the office of the US trade representative (USTR) on China’s implementation of the US-China economic and trade agreement, which was agreed at the beginning of 2020.
This was known as the 'phase one agreement' and designed to resolve trade issues between the countries. The failure to renew beef export licenses is considered by the industry to be a violation of the deal.
Other markets
The other main export markets in Asia for US beef also recorded declines in September.
Japan is the largest US beef export market and volumes in September were down 12% to 17,018t and for the nine months to the end of September, exports were down 4% from a year ago to 181,487t.
South Korea, traditionally the second-largest export market, also showed a sharp decline in September, with the volume down 3,300t to 14,810t.
This had the effect of making Mexico the second-largest export market in September on 16,862t.
Pork exports
Despite a small drop in volumes, USMEF considers it to be a solid performance by US pork exports in 2025, though in September there was a 2% volume drop compared with last September to 233,816t.
For the year to date, US pork exports are 2.16m tonnes, which is 3% lower than the first nine months of 2024.
There was a strong performance in exports to Mexico, with volume up 16% in September to 106,472t, bringing the total for the year to the end of September to 888,077t, some 4% higher than for the same period last year.
Despite a sharp fall in pork exports to China, it remained the second-largest export market in September, taking 29,561t ahead of Japan which took 21,815t.
Comment – less US beef creates opportunity for other exporters
There has never been any real competition between Irish and US beef in export markets.
However, the drop in US export volumes is of indirect relevance to Irish beef producers and exporters.
This is because the drop in US supply to Asian markets is being picked up by Australia and the main South American beef-exporting countries.
As they have increased demand from Asia, it makes them less active in the UK and EU markets than they might otherwise be and where they would be in direct competition with Irish beef.
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