Emissions from the global production of animal protein (meat and dairy) are now estimated to be 12% of all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

This was revealed in the ‘Pathways to lower emissions’ report, published by the Food and Agriculture Association (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) at the agriculture debate at COP28 in Dubai.

This is two percentage points lower than a previous estimate, but the report explains that direct comparisons “are not feasible due to differences in methodology, input data and global warming potential (GWP) values”.

The report regularly emphasises the variations between regions of the world, and points out that “emission intensity tends to be lower in regions with higher absolute emissions”.

Ireland and New Zealand are good examples of this – where agriculture contributes 40% and 50% respectively of total country emissions – yet, they are the best performers when it comes to output per unit of production.

FAO roadmaps

Irrespective of what level of global GHG emissions come from agriculture, it is generally accepted that they need to be less.

To this end, the FAO also published ‘Presenting a Global Vision’, the first in a series of three roadmaps to deliver an overall reduction of 25% in emissions from livestock farming by 2030.

The second will follow next year at COP29, with the theme of ‘Moving from a global to a regional view and from a vision to costing and financing’.

The third and final volume will be released at COP30 in 2025, with the theme of ‘Establishing country action plans, monitoring and accountability’.

The challenge identified by FAO in this year’s road map is in achieving their Second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of ending hunger and achieving food security and improved nutrition for the human population without breaching the 1.5C threshold.

Put bluntly, it recognises the need to feed a global population of nine billion people by 2050, as well as tackling the contribution of agriculture in global emissions.

Delivering a 25% reduction in emissions from livestock

The headline-grabbing figure of a 25% reduction in emissions from livestock farming will ring a bell with Irish livestock farmers, for whom this is a legal requirement.

The FAO roadmap doesn’t specify in detail how this can be delivered, but there are useful pointers provided.

The first of these is obvious, to “Improve livestock productivity through better genetics – increasing productivity and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of product”.

For Irish farmers, perhaps the second one is even more obvious. It suggests that livestock production should be intensified in extensive systems in relevant locations and to improve feeding practices and use additives that reduce emissions.

The importance of animal health is recognised and the feed industry is encouraged to promote new sources of protein.

What is particularly striking is the extent to which these major issues will impact outcome and how insignificant others are. For example, reduced consumption of terrestrial animal source food (TASF), the most common examples being meat and dairy from ruminant livestock, has an estimated global reduction potential of 4%.

But this is just a fraction of the estimated 20% that can be achieved through productivity increases, one third of the 12% that can be delivered by feed improvements and half of 8% that can be delivered by improved breeding.

Comment

Looking at the FAO publications, it is striking, the amount of logic they apply to the issue of emissions from agriculture, which at 12% of the global total, may be relatively small, but still needs to be improved.

The pathway to improvement can be summarised in one word: efficiency.

The key to minimising emissions from agriculture while continuing to produce food to feed a growing global population is maximising yield of meat and milk.

This will be achieved through breeding and feeding, and it is also notable that countries like Ireland, where emissions from the sector may be high in absolute terms, are actually among the lowest per unit of output.

Achieving the 25% reduction as set out by FAO is already a legal requirement for Irish farmers, and while there is a clear path on how to achieve up to 18% of that target, the remainder will be a challenge without loss of livestock units.

Farmers may not agree with every word of the ‘Pathways’ report or the roadmap, but they provide a useful context for an informed debate on how best to reduce emissions from agriculture globally.

One way not to do it is collapsing production where it is most efficient.