The next United Nations (UN) climate change conference will run between 30 November and 12 December in Dubai. It will be the 28th gathering by the Conference of the Parties, and is best known and reported on as COP 28.

It is preceded by a “Pre-sessional period” beginning on Friday 24 November where officials put the final touches to the agenda that will be debated by world leaders in the main event, which is the Olympics of climate change debate.

These have become annual events, with the exception of 2020, when it was postponed due to the global pandemic. COP 27 was held this time last year in Egypt, but COP 26 in Glasgow in 2021 enjoyed a much higher profile with the UK hosting.

The sheer scale of that event is evident from the numbers published by the UN. They say that the event “brought together 120 world leaders and over 40,000 registered participants, including 22,274 party delegates, 14,124 observers and 3,886 media representatives.”

Despite going into added time beyond the scheduled end of the conference, agreement on action was largely confined to aspiration and ambition, with little consensus on the tough action required particularly in developed economies.

This was admitted by UN secretary general António Guterres, who described the approved texts as a compromise that reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today.

They take important steps, but unfortunately the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions.”

Agenda

Livestock-based farming will get plenty of attention. With 40% of emissions coming from farming, Europe and Ireland in particular will be held out as an example of being a major offender.

It is unlikely that there will be any serious analysis of why agriculture accounts for 40% of Irish emissions.

The reality that we have no history of heavy industry and a relatively small but growing population compared with our more industrialised neighbours will be overlooked.

Similarly, the fact that grass is to Ireland what oil is to Saudi Arabia is neither understood nor appreciated.

We can also expect focus on the need for the developed world to change its diet to reduce consumption of products that require livestock farming. Ireland, with 18kg per person annual beef consumption, would be considered a good performer compared to the US, where per capita consumption is more than double that and it is three times higher in South America, where beef is cheap and readily available.

Global consumption forecast

In any case, analysis of the of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 report shows that global beef demand will increase by 10% and sheep meat consumption is forecast to increase by 15%.

The report forecasts that beef consumption in developed countries will show only a marginal increase from 29.9m tonnes in 2023 to 30.1m tonnes in 2032.

However, in developing countries, beef consumption is forecast to increase from 42m tonnes to 47.5m tonnes, an increase of 5.5m tonnes.

It is a similar trend with sheep meat, with a forecast increase of consumption in the developed world from 2.7m tonnes to 2.8m tonnes, while in the developing countries consumption volume is predicted to increase from just under 14m tonnes in 2023 to almost 16m tonnes in 2032. Other non-ruminant meat protein consumption is also forecast to increase.

Demand for dairy products will also grow significantly over the coming decade, again primarily from developing countries.

Consumption of fresh dairy products is forecast to be 141.5m tonnes in 2032, the same as it is in 2023, whereas in developing countries it is forecast to increase from 335m tonnes in 2023 to 413m tonnes in 2032.

What’s more, milk yield per cow in developed countries is forecast at 5.97t (5,796 litres) per head in 2031, compared with just 0.79t (767 litres) per head in developing countries.

Comment

Livestock-based farmers have failed to convince wider society that the best way to meet the increasing global demand for their products is from efficient production.

Dairy cow yields are more than seven times higher in developed countries than in the countries where increased demand will come from.

It makes sense to give grass and water to cattle outdoors in Ireland and export milk and beef to countries like Saudi Arabia, instead of them importing grain for livestock feed and drilling deep for water to keep cattle in air conditioned sheds.

Production should be targeted to where it is most efficient to do so as the most meaningful contribution to minimising emissions from livestock.