Factory cattle down 1.5m head in EU

The number of cattle processed in the European Union has fallen by 1.577m head in the nine months to the end of September 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. This converted to 4.51m tonnes of beef carcase weight, down from 4.87m tonnes in the same period last year.

As Figure 1 shows, this is the lowest number of cattle processed in at least the past five years.

The fall in production has occurred in all the significant beef-producing member states of the EU as shown in Figure 2. Ireland has shown a particularly sharp decline, down 120,000 head to 1.276m in the first nine months of 2025 compared with last year.

France is the EU’s largest beef producer and its cattle numbers were down by 115,000 head to 2.84m. In Germany, the numbers were down 172,000 head to just over 2m head in total for the first nine months of the year while Italy posted the largest decline, down 262,000 head to 1.67m.

Numbers processed in Spain were also down compared with last year but their decline of 105,000 head to 1.77m represented the smallest decline among the major beef-producing nations of the EU.

Trade implications

Unsurprisingly, this is reflected in EU trade patterns for the same period. As Figure 3 shows, imports for the year to September are at their highest for the past five years while exports are at their lowest. Historically the EU exports much more beef than is imported.

This is because EU consumers have a preference for high-value cuts of beef which means that lower-value parts of the carcase are exported to external markets.

In turn to fill EU consumer demand for high-value beef cuts, these are imported primarily from South American countries. Quantities from New Zealand have been increasing since an EU New Zealand trade deal came into effect in May 2024.

Trade between the EU and UK falls outside this pattern somewhat, reflecting the unique trading relationship between the UK and Ireland plus the large overlap of beef processing businesses between the two countries.

Trade partners

EU beef exports to the end of September were 663,215 tonnes product weight. This is down sharply on the 825,770 tonnes exported in the same period last year and the lowest since the first three quarters of 2013.

The UK is the main export partner for the EU and the vast majority of this business is due to Irish beef exports both to Britain and Northern Ireland and overall accounted for over 205,000 tonnes between January and September this year.

Meanwhile, EU beef imports during the same period increased by 33,300 tonnes to 259,154 tonnes which is the highest in the past five years.

As with exports, the UK is a major partner for EU beef imports and again much of this business is between the UK and Ireland and includes a large element of intercompany trade. Brazil is the next largest supplier of EU beef imports in 2025 at just over 60,000 tonnes followed by Argentina on almost 45,000 tonnes.

An interesting development has been the growth in beef imports from New Zealand which reached 4,700 tonnes in the year to September. While this is small in the overall context of EU beef imports, it is nevertheless a significant increase on the 3,464 tonnes imported from New Zealand in the same period last year and almost double the 2,600 tonnes imported in the first nine months of 2023. Since May 2024, New Zealand has a 10,000-tonne beef quota with a preferential tariff rate of 7.5%.

Comment – EU beef industry shrinking

There is widespread comment on the sharp decline of cattle available for processing in Ireland this year and the consequent decline in beef production. While Ireland is towards the top of EU decline, it isn’t unique with sharp falls recorded in all the major beef-producing countries.

The immediate impact of this is a decline in volumes exported alongside an increase in EU beef imports. The scarcity in EU supply coincides with record volumes being available in Brazil for export. In 2025, they will export over 3m tonnes of beef in total and while the EU is now a relatively small market for them, it is their highest value market, almost exclusively buying the highest value steak-meat cuts.

There are of course wider economic implications from declining beef production. Last week we noted that Tyson Foods announced the closure of one of its large beef processing factories due to overcapacity in the industry. This impacts on suppliers and of course the thousands of people employed directly and indirectly in the business. So far there haven’t been any major closures though the issue of overcapacity has come to prominence in debates around the Irish industry recently. If, as is likely, numbers remain tight into 2026, don’t be surprised if a factory or two is mothballed here.