Building wind turbines is a bit like fishing for energy.

Sometimes you can have all the right gear, the right bait, and yet when you cast your line you catch nothing. Likewise, when you build a wind turbine, sometimes there just isn’t any wind, and you catch no electricity.

In fishing, the best way to increase the chances of success has been to invest in larger nets, larger boats and travel further to catch the fish. In energy, it is much the same idea.

Install more capacity to try to catch as much wind as possible.

However, in neither case is the fundamental problem fully overcome – there is an element of luck involved in getting a successful outcome.

To be clear, having the capacity installed is a good thing – like fishing, the one way to be sure of catching nothing is to not try at all – but it is impossible to get over the element of luck involved in success.

This week’s news that Ireland’s wind sector increased power generation in July by 51% over July of 2022 is, in some ways, a reflection of that luck.

There has not been a 50% increase in installed capacity over the last year. It’s just that this July was a lot windier than last year. Which is lucky.

In looking at Ireland’s energy demand and wind supply, we can see the effect of newly installed capacity since 2015, as wind output increased from 6,500 Gigawatt hours (GWh) to 11,150 GWh in 2022.

Demand

However, the rise in overall demand almost exactly matched the rise in wind generation across the period. The amount of demand that had to be met by sources other than wind in 2015 was just over 18,000 GWh. In 2022 it was also just over 18,000 GWh.

In 2023, the Wind Energy Association is celebrating a strong July. But those numbers come on the back of low output in May and June, so the year is shaping up to be average overall, depending on what the next five months bring.

The solution to the intermittence of the wind supply has been the use of traditional thermal generation to maintain the supply. This thermal energy – burning gas, coal, etc – was responsible for just over 19,000 GWh in 2015 and just over 20,000 GWh in 2022.

Basically, despite the investments in wind energy, Ireland has managed to make zero progress in reducing the overall amount of electricity that has to be generated from burning stuff.

Right now, there is a ship called the Golden Incus travelling across the Atlantic which is due to arrive in Moneypoint, Co Clare, on Friday 11 August.

That ship, with a carrying capacity of 180,000t, sailed from Colombia last month loaded with coal. That coal will be burned to make up the shortfall from renewable sources, becoming part of the thermal energy needed to keep Ireland supplied with power.

The carbon emissions from that coal will also add to Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, making it harder to reach the country’s 2030 targets.

Comment

Despite headlines about record wind production in July, Ireland is still at the start of its renewable journey. The progress that has been made in the past decade has barely been enough to cover the increase in demand over that period.

Absent a massive increase in renewable development this country is on track to have little improvement in GHG emissions from electricity production, if demand continues at the same pace. There is, however, a relatively simple solution to this problem.

Instead of importing coal, gas and oil to burn in power stations, Ireland should increase imports of electricity. Imported electricity is zero-carbon for us as the emissions are accounted for in country where the electricity is generated.

Right now, there are two interconnectors across the Irish Sea and another planned to France. Should Ireland increase the number of these, we can increase our imports of zero carbon electricity instead of importing high-carbon coal, oil and gas to make electricity here.

It is far from an ideal solution to the problems faced, but the pace of renewable expansion is just not going fast enough, and wind is just not reliable enough, to make a big enough difference by 2030.