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The latest animal identification and movement (AIM) data shows that suckler cow numbers have fallen again, down to 810,717 at 1 June 2024, which is over 34,000 fewer than a year ago and 35% lower than the 1.1m head in 2013.
After more than a decade of sustained growth, dairy cow numbers had been levelling off in recent years, but the 2024 data is the first that shows a decline in recent times.
The dairy herd at 1 June this year was 1,639,000 and when this is added to the suckler cow herd, the total is 2,449,717m, the lowest cow total since 2015 and the fourth year in a row that total cow numbers on Irish farms have declined.
Trends
Data for a single year can be misleading, in that it can reflect one-off events that cause a change in farming patterns.
To get an overall picture, it is best to consider data over several years to establish a pattern and using Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) data (Figure 1) over a decade, it is clear that beef cow numbers are in steady decline and dairy cow numbers had been expanding before the growth slowed down in recent years with the 2024 data showing a decline.
Farming practices in Ireland are shaped by two key elements - market performance and support measures.
For dairy, expansion in cow numbers in the past decade was driven by the ending of milk quotas in 2015, which had hindered the sector from achieving its full production potential.
The reduction of the 250kg N/ha limit to 220kg N/ha and the risk of the derogation being lost altogether has put a brake on dairy expansion. With cows becoming ever higher-yielding, it suggests that peak dairy cow numbers were reached last year.
Suckler cow numbers have been in steady decline over the past decade, having reached a peak of 1.2m head between 2007 and 2009 (CSO).
Market performance has ebbed and flowed, but the constant that encouraged the keeping of suckler cows has been the level of CAP-based support, which encouraged the suckler herd to grow from around 460,000 head in the early 1980s prior to milk quotas.
With CAP payments increasingly land-based as opposed to output-based, plus dairy still being relatively lucrative, further decline in suckler cow numbers is a risk.
Further changes
Following the work done by KPMG in a report for the Irish Farmers Journal, the indication is that Irish cattle numbers are likely to decline further over the remainder of this decade.
CAP payments are moving away from production, apart from organic farming, and delivery of a 25% reduction in emissions requires less livestock to deliver up to half of this cut.
The indication from the latest census data suggests that the economics of production combined with the risk of going outside nitrogen limits will help deliver this figure and build on the 4.6% reduction in emissions from agriculture delivered last year.
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