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In their July forecast USDA have increased their forecast of China’s beef imports for the second half of 2024 by a huge 450,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent.
This increase alone is more beef than the total imported by all but the next three highest beef importing countries – USA, Japan and South Korea. This will mean that China’s demand for beef imports will continue its upward trajectory which began back in 2012 when they imported less than 100,000 tonnes.
USDA’s estimated total for China’s beef import since 2023 was 3,577 tonnes CWE, three times more than the USA who are the world’s second largest importer of beef.
Production
The forecast for global beef production has also been revised upwards for 2024 from 60.354m tonnes CWE in April to 60.748m tonnes in the July forecast.
The biggest revision is the forecast for Brazil’s beef output which is now expected to reach 11.350 tonnes CWE, 140,000 tonnes more than the April forecast. Brazilian beef exports are forecast to increase by a huge 370,000 tonnes CWE to a record total of 3,300 tonnes this year.
Australian output is predicted to continue its recent increase though at a slower rate of 80,000 tonnes more, and the USA even with the lowest cattle herd at the start of the year since 1950, is predicted to increase beef output by 85,000 tonnes CWE.
Little change elsewhere
Aside from the massive increase in demand from China, other forecasts remain more or less in line with the April update.
US beef imports which have been particularly high over the past year, are forecasted to dip slightly to 1.88m tonnes CWE.
While Australia have been the main beneficiary of increased US demand, Irish beef exports to the US have been performing better in 2024 than in the previous couple of years.
Up to the end of last week, the US had imported 2,862 tonnes product weight from Ireland which remains tiny in the context of overall US beef imports and indeed Irish exports. However, it marks almost a three fold increase on what was admittedly very low 1,072 tonnes in the same period last year.
Slump in Chinese pig meat imports
The trend for China’s pig meat imports is the opposite to beef with USDA forecasting a 21% decline this year to 1.5m tonnes, the lowest since 2019.
A widespread outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) meant China imported over 5m tonnes of pig meat in 2020 though this has been falling since as the Chinese pig herd was rebuilt.
When their demand for pig meat was at its peak, China was Ireland’s top export market for volume. While it has declined significantly since then, it is still substantial taking just over 23,000 tonnes in the first five months of this year compared with over 50,000 tonnes in the same period in 2021.
Comment
Given the fact that China imports over one third of all beef traded in global markets, any substantial change in this market has the potential to impact global beef price.
Ireland’s stop start with beef exports to China plus restricted approval means that it hasn’t yet become a major volume market. It is predominantly supplied by South American countries and increasingly by Australia as their production recovered from drought.
Growing demand from China for beef form these countries means that they are exporting less to Europe and in the process creates opportunity for Irish exporters.
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