Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A far-off conflict has led to a surge in oil and gas prices on international markets, which in turn has caused a jump in what is charged for a litre of fuel here in Ireland.

That jump in fuel prices has been accompanied with calls for further Government support for those hit by the rising costs. These calls are not unreasonable at all, as a rapid increase in the cost of essential energy supplies will hit those least able to afford the extra expense hardest.

We learned in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, that rapid increases in energy prices have the potential to feed through to inflation across the economy. Paying more than €2 a litre for diesel causes immediate pain, but if the crisis drags on longer, we will start to see those increases in electricity bills and then across the economy. Much of Ireland’s electricity production is from gas, and while that tends to be forward- purchased, those contracts will roll off in the coming months, leading to a delayed increase in electricity prices, should the conflict lead to medium or long-term disruption.

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Those increases would, in turn, lead to an increase in the overall level of inflation in the economy. This week we’ve heard from central banks that are already becoming concerned about what energy developments mean for costs in the wider economy.

The problem with this inflation – and reduced spending power – is that much of it could be avoided if Ireland was more self-sufficient in energy production.

There has been significant progress on switching Ireland’s electricity generation to renewable sources over recent years (see Figure 1), and this week the Government announced that the country had achieved 8GW of installed renewable electricity capacity.

However, looking at Figure 2, we can see that the increase in energy from renewables since 2000 has only been enough to replace the capacity lost through the ending of coal and peat electricity production.

It is also worth noting that electricity accounted for less than a quarter of Ireland’s energy supply in 2023, the latest year for which CSO data is available. While the Government might rightly celebrate the progress made, which saw more almost half of Ireland’s electricity being generated by renewables in February, the reliance on oil and gas for heating, transport and industrial uses means that renewable energy accounts for around 10% of the country’s total energy needs.

There is no quick solution to this. But there are faster solutions than the slow progress that has been made over the past number of years. Ireland has some advantages in producing wind energy, and onshore wind energy is relatively cheap to install and connect to the grid. The problem for developers is that while they know how to build and operate wind-powered facilities, there are often significant barriers to be overcome – whether it is the planning process or grid capacity – before a suitable site can be up and running.

The Government’s “Accelerating Renewable Electricity Taskforce”, established under the 2023 Climate Action Plan to identify, coordinate, and prioritise the policies required to fast-track and increase deployment of onshore renewable electricity generation, said in its July 2025 annual review that one of the key actions for delivery in Q4 2025 is the issuing of the final wind energy development guidelines and national planning statement.

Those guidelines have not yet been issued. On 5 March, John Cummins, Minister of State at the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage said the department is “working towards concluding the finalisation of a draft National Planning Statement for Wind Energy” and that the current 2006 wind energy development guidelines remain in force.

On the other side of the coin, Wind Energy Ireland, the industry body for developers continues to call for more ambition from Government when it comes to onshore wind. It says that onshore wind is the most affordable source of new electricity, and is pushing for the Government to target 15GW of installed onshore wind capacity by 2040.

The National Development Plan review, published in July 2025 allocated €3.5bn towards the upgrading of Ireland’s electricity supply network, a welcome move which should both improve the resilience of the network, but also the ability of the network to accept connection of fresh windfarms.

Comment

When it comes to energy policy in Ireland, the progress made over the past decade certainly has to be acknowledged. There is, however, still a huge amount of work to do to help shelter the country from the regular energy crises which cause so much damage to the economy.

The solution to this is clear, but it is far from easy. Ireland needs to increase electricity’s share in the country’s energy mix, and needs to increase the renewables share in that electricity mix.

Actions and statements from the Government show that there is a clear understanding of both the problem and the solution. And yet, developments are still getting bogged down in bureaucracy and policy misalignment. The wind energy sector needs updated guidelines, as does the Anaerobic Digester industry. Solar has seen accelerated development over the past couple of years, but even there, we see differences in approach. The latest data on TAMS grants show that only about one in four on-farm solar installations that applied for a grant were approved in the latest tranche.

The last time Ireland faced a true energy emergency was in the second world war where interruptions to shipping meant that the country had to provide its own energy wherever possible. At the time, much of the country’s farm and local transport needs could be provided by horses, so the solution was to oblige farmers to plant a percentage of their arable land with oats or wheat.

While we are certainly not suggesting that such a solution is needed now – where solar panels would be planted instead of oats – it is clear that if not enough action is taken fast enough, then Ireland could end up in a situation where radical plans will have to be put in place to keep the lights on.