Brian Kuehl, director of government and public affairs at Pinion and manager at the Farm Program Fairness Coalition spoke at a webinar organised by ifac where he outlined the potential risks to Irish and European agricultural trade with the US from President Donald Trump’s policies. He started by highlighting this week’s introduction of 25% steel and aluminium tariffs and the planned introduction of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on 2 April. Kuehl said that those tariffs would be aimed at adjusting imbalances in trade and that the introduction of them could be a big flashpoint for trade in agricultural goods.
Brian Kuehl, director of government and public affairs at Pinion and manager at the Farm Program Fairness Coalition spoke at a webinar organised by ifac where he outlined the potential risks to Irish and European agricultural trade with the US from President Donald Trump’s policies.
He started by highlighting this week’s introduction of 25% steel and aluminium tariffs and the planned introduction of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on 2 April. Kuehl said that those tariffs would be aimed at adjusting imbalances in trade and that the introduction of them could be a big flashpoint for trade in agricultural goods.
“The United States is chewing off trade wars with adversaries and allies alike around the world, including the on-again, off-again tariffs with Canada and Mexico and the 20% tariffs on Chinese goods.
The US is clearly in a posture of wanting to pick fights around trade issues which has an immediate impact on US agriculture’s $16bn (€14.6bn) of soybean exports to China and $7bn (€6.4bn) of corn exports to Mexico.
“The squeeze that will put on US agriculture will put pressure on Trump to help US agriculture, and that in turn will lead to pressure on the EU to accept exports from the US, especially in dairy where there is a significant trade imbalance.”
EU tariffs
Kuehl said that when the US introduced tariffs on the EU during his first presidency, they were not in place for very long after a deal was reached at the time, with a longer-term agreement reached under the Biden administration.
However, he noted that during the first Trump presidency a comprehensive trade agreement was worked out between the US, Canada and Mexico. Despite signing on the dotted line in 2019, Trump has led the US into a fresh trade dispute with Canada and Mexico.
“The US needs to be careful. You can only have so many bites of the apple before people will stop wanting to work with you.
“The US is the largest economy in the world and people are always going to orientate towards it as a purchaser of goods, but that uncertainty is dangerous and I would hope that the US moves to resolve some of this uncertainty very soon.”
The US also has a problem because this time around, the targets of Trump’s tariffs are much better prepared for what might be coming. In the EU, there seems to be little appetite to bow to US tariffs. This week Brussels announced the imposition of tariffs on €26bn worth of US goods from next month.
“I think, worst case scenario, things could spin out of control. We could see deterioration in relationships, and a tit-for-tat escalation in trade measures,” Kuehl warned.
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