In its November update, Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) has revised down its projection for cattle slaughter to 6m head in 2021, the lowest in 36 years.

This is a 16% drop on 2020 and is the result of herd rebuilding following drought in 2018 and 2019. With carcase weights predicted at 308kg, total beef production of 1.8m tonnes for the year is forecast.

Total cattle herd is estimated at 26.3m.

Less availability has resulted in reduced Australian beef exports. MLA puts exports for the year to date at 660,000t, while, for the year ending 30 September, beef export volumes were down 17%.

Scarcity of cattle supplies has driven demand from factories for cattle and record prices have consistently been paid throughout 2021. The current price for an MSA-grading steer is $8.08/kg, which is the equivalent of €5.21/kg.

Recovery under way

MLA reports that there is an abundance of feed that is encouraging cattle retention, meaning that the herd rebuild is well under way. It is expected by MLA to grow to 27.8m in 2022 and increase again to 28.6m in 2023.

Slaughter projections are for 6.65m cattle in 2022, an extra 650,000 cattle, and increasing again to 7.45m cattle in 2023. This is almost 1.5m cattle more than in 2021 and, as Australia already exports on average 1m tonnes annually, this is forecast to grow by 220,000t on 2021 levels by 2023 into world markets.

The concern for Irish farmers is where this beef will be sold. Australia has agreed a free trade deal with the UK and the expectation is that it would be supplying beef to the UK tariff-free in 2023, which would provide serious competition for Irish beef exports.