The average price paid for milk in 2025 should exceed 50c/l including VAT and all bonuses, Aurivo CEO Donal Tierney has predicted.

However, while Aurivo paid a VAT-inclusive base price of 50c/l for December milk, Tierney cautioned that this price could ease back by 3c/l as the year progressed.

“2024 was a good year both for the co-op and for farmers. The average milk price that we paid in 2024 will be in excess of 50c/l,” Tierney told an Aurivo dairy and farm succession event in Claremorris on Monday evening.

“The price gradually improved during the year and pretty quickly since September on the back of butter. Butter reached a peak of nearly €8,000/t in the back-end of the year,” he explained.

Tierney claimed the outlook for 2025 was good.

Increased demand

While milk volumes globally are forecast to grow by around 1%, the Aurivo boss pointed out that demand looked set to increase by 1.5%.

The 0.5% difference between supply and demand growth was “very significant, as that is what drives prices,” Tierney explained.

“We did our budgets in October and November and we have budgeted for a similar average price in 2025 as we achieved in 2024. But the make-up of that will be slightly different,” he said.

“Last year, we started at a low base in January and February and went up as high as 50c/l by the end of the year. I think the trajectory in 2025 will be different. We’re starting at a base of 50c/l and it might dip a little bit, but not significantly, perhaps 3c/l,” Tierney predicted.

Global markets

In terms of global markets, John Murray of Bord Bia and Shane Henry of Ornua predicted another good year for Irish dairy internationally.

Irish dairy exports in 2024 were valued at €6.3bn. Murray said falling milk output across Europe was an opportunity for Ireland, while emerging markets in southeast Asia were broadening the reach of dairy exports.

Although Shane Henry pointed out that Kerrygold sales in the US - where it is the number one imported butter brand - were critically important, there was no mention of Trump or tariffs on the night.