The beef trade remains in a vulnerable position, with the supply-demand balance well out of kilter.

Last week’s beef kill increased by 461 head to reach 38,150. This included 598 extra steers (17,219), 448 more cows (7,275) and 60 more young bulls (2,580).

Heifer throughput in contrast reduced 652 head to 10,486. The kill is 962 head lower than the comparable weekly kill in 2018.

Factories continue to place priority on heifers and steers aged under 30 months, with cattle over 30 months facing a long lead-in time from booking to slaughter.

Base prices for steers and heifers average €3.45/kg for steers and €3.50/kg for heifers.

Liffey Meats is an exception on price at a base of €3.50/kg for steers and €3.60/kg for heifers.

Reports indicate this price was agreed until 1 November, while other reports show plants concerned working at reduced capacity.

At the other end of the price scale, a number of plants have moved this week to try to bring heifers back to a base of €3.45/kg. Numbers moving at this level are small to date, but downward pressure persists.

Another element that is starting to crop up in places is cattle aged over 30 months that have been delayed from being killed that are meeting resistance in places due to a higher carcase weight. This is frustrating farmers greatly, as it is out of their control.

Bull prices remain unchanged. R grades are moving from €3.40/kg to €3.45/kg, with U grades from €3.50/kg to €3.55/kg. O grading bulls remain at a wide price differential of €3.15/kg to €3.30/kg.

Bulls under 16 months are being offered a base price averaging €3.40/kg on the grid.

Carcase weight limits are coming under the spotlight and also vary greatly between plants. Some are trying to introduce weight limits starting at 380kg to 400kg, with deductions on a rising scale at weight increments thereafter.

P+3 grading cows average €2.60/kg to €2.70/kg. Farmers moving light carcase and poorly fleshed cows direct from the parlour should check prices on offer, as they can dip 50c to €1/kg lower.

O grades average €2.80/kg to €2.90/kg, with R grades around the €3/kg mark.

U grading cow prices vary greatly, ranging anywhere from €3.10/kg to a top of €3.20/kg to €3.30/kg in plants specialising in top-quality cows.

AIM data

The latest Department of Agriculture AIM data for 1 September 2019 shows supplies remaining strong but shrinking longer term.

There were 92,847 fewer beef-sired animals on farms compared with 1 September 2018. Analysis of the data gives a breakdown of 36,528 fewer suckler beef cows and 34,149 less beef males, while the number of beef heifers dropped 22,170 head.

There are significant variations between age categories, with six- to 12-month and 12- to 18-month beef cattle and dairy males down 140,000 head.

From a beef perspective, numbers in the 18- to 24-month and 24- to 30-month age brackets are up 23,502 compared with the same period in 2018.

A portion of this is cancelled out by 8,130 fewer dairy males in the same age categories.

Reports suggest higher numbers could be stored over the winter, but the factor that continues to have the greatest influence on the trade is 75,000 fewer cattle processed in the last six weeks and a surge of cattle coming on to the market due to ground conditions deteriorating.

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NI trends: beef prices steady with quotes unchanged as lamb trade is firm