Methane emissions are not being properly represented by the current model generally used, a new paper from the Oxford Martin school on climate pollutants asserts.

It holds that a 10% cut in methane emissions by 2052 would end any warming effect on global temperatures.

However, the downside of this modelling is that increased methane emissions are actually having a worse effect on global warming than that indicated by the current standard model.

The research holds that the established “CO2-equivalent”, which uses the 100-year warming effect, misrepresents the effect of methane, as it only lasts in the atmosphere for 12 years. Instead, a “CO2-warming-equivalent” is proposed.

Static methane output, which would be achieved by a static herd, means static warming from methane over time. However, static CO2 emissions lead to continuous warming, due to the length of time carbon stays in the atmosphere before it’s broken down.

Significant

The implication of this science is that a relatively small cut in emissions from livestock would dramatically improve the carbon footprint of Irish farming. That would apply whether the reduction was achieved by reducing the methane emissions from cattle through breeding and feed additive use for instance, or through cutting cattle numbers in a reduction of the national herd.

Cutting emissions by 3% per decade will lead to a reduction in global temperatures. And moving toward net-zero emissions from livestock farming would help to significantly reduce global temperatures. However, every extra tonne of methane produced would cause 128 tonnes of CO2 per year over the first 20 years, four and a half times more than the current metric would indicate.