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Speaking in Rosslare to members of the Irish Road Haulage Association, European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan outlined the need for preparation in the face of Brexit.
The commissioner explained how the outcome is out of our control but the response is not.
“The challenge is to be as prepared as possible, for as many outcomes as possible – including the worst ones,” Commissioner Hogan stated.
What we know/don’t know
Commissioner Hogan took stock of the facts of Brexit. The first issue mentioned was the land border.
While the primary success of avoiding a hard border is significant, economic readjustments will not be avoided. Ireland’s current integrated economy will change.
The goodwill established by the Good Friday agreement, as well as the cross-border cooperation, will most definitely reduce.
Minimising the effect on what we have is the primary aim for Ireland and for the EU.
Hogan promised we can expect to see cross-border arrangements being scaled down and eventually disappearing.
This will affect jobs in the north and south. The commissioner also commented on the disparity between UK prime minister Theresa May and the internal disagreement within the conservative government.
The commissioner believes the UK needs to realise that membership of the customs union and regulatory alignment are important for resolving internal issues, as well as establishing a future trade relationship with the EU. What is being proposed by the customs union at present is a free trade agreement similar to what we have with Canada or South Korea.
Commissioner Hogan alluded to a less harmful proposal than this if change were to occur.
Public opinion in the UK
The commissioner explained that the mood is changing in the UK, “Public opinion is starting to move, and all recent polling shows the 'remain' side firmly ahead. This is an important change, because well into 2017, the polls showed a majority still in favour of Brexit.”
Businesses in the UK are raising their voices in response to the lack of action and planning by their Government. Commissioner Hogan stated that the British public has seen through the lies and deceit of the Brexiteers. A call for a “people's referendum” on the final Brexit deal has been mentioned.
Hard Brexit
While the public opinion has come full circle, it seems this will play little consequence in the short-term negotiations.
The possibility of a hard Brexit is still very real as the UK parties of interest are running out of time. A decision will have to be made and the possibility of those in favour of a hard Brexit may come out on the right side.
The commissioner then reassured that the EU is ready for the worst, stating: “It [EU] is prepared in case the most painful Brexit becomes a reality.
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