Press reports on UK government plans for legislation in the event of the UK not reaching a deal with the EU that would override the EU-UK withdrawal agreement will reopen concern for the continued trade for agricultural produce across the Irish border.

Currently, one-third of milk produced in the North is processed south of the border, as is 40% of lambs.

Up to 350,000 pigs go the other way, while, so far this year, 40,741 cattle have been exported to Northern Ireland.

Protocol

The Irish protocol in the withdrawal agreement facilitated the continuation of this trade by enabling Northern Ireland to be part of the UK customs union while remaining aligned to the EU on standards and tariffs.

This is somewhat politically controversial, in that it requires Northern Irish companies to undertake administrative duties for which the UK government announced financial support recently.

A level of inspection of goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain is also part of this, the extent of which would be determined by the level of agreement reached between the EU and UK on a future trading relationship.

Media reports suggest that the UK government is preparing legislation to overide the Irish protocol in the event of not having a trade deal with the EU.

If the UK government enacts legislation that overrules the Irish protocol part of the withdrawal agreement, then the issue of administering an EU-UK border on the island of Ireland is reopened.

For farmers, what is particularly relevant about this is the extent that agriculture on the island of Ireland operates as a single market. If this is disrupted, then it will be farmers that will be impacted most severely.

Comment

Of course, until the text of the proposed legislation is revealed, it’s unclear what all this might mean.

What is being reported is that it is being considered in the context of the UK and EU not reaching a deal on the future trading relationship, and therefore perhaps part of the negotiation process.

If there is no deal, it is the worst outcome for Ireland, and it would also mean the Irish protocol really does put a border down the Irish Sea.

This is politically sensitive for many unionists in Northern Ireland, whereas if a trade deal is secured, border controls at Northern Irish points of entry will be less intrusive making it more palatable to unionist politicians.