The CAP and in particular the budget will be central to the Council of Agriculture Ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday. Following the ongoing series of consultations around Ireland, discussions on the 2020 CAP and its funding are picking up pace.

Any CAP revision is anchored in the agreement of a new budget for the 2020-2027 period known as the multi-annual financial framework (MFF). It is always one of the more complex EU negotiations and last time around in 2013 it was particularly protracted. This time, there is the added dimension of no contribution from the UK, which will squeeze spending at a time when the EU has ambitions to do more, particularly in the areas of defence and refugees.

Three proposals

Commissioner Oettinger, who is in charge of the EU budget, launched his proposals by way of a communication in Brussels this week. From a farming perspective, the option that suggested a 30% cut sent shivers down the spine. Two other options are also included: one a reduction of 15% in CAP expenditure and the other suggests maintaining it around current levels. While there will be huge pressure on the CAP budget, the Commissioner did point out that he didn’t want agriculture played off against security and defence. He was also advocating an increase of contributions from 1% of GDP as it is at present to somewhere between 1.1% and 1.2%, and wants member stated to avoid a debate around net contributors an net recipients from the budget. This is ambitious.

Targets

In the communication, there is considerable thought given to the type of expenditure that might be incurred on CAP and there is a synergy with European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan’s own proposals in his communication that was launched at the end of November. The issue of 80% of the CAP expenditure going to just 20% of farmers rankles with Commissioner Oettinger and this was also highlighted in Hogan’s communication.

In the scenario where the budget remains the same, he suggests that there could be some reallocation to small and medium farmers. This will be considered at Monday’s meeting of agriculture ministers, where they will be asked to consider a “fairer and more effective outcome for farmers.”

The budget communication also references a higher environmental ambition just as Hogan did and this is in obvious acknowledgement of the lobby by the environment NGOs in Brussels. It is clear that farmers will come under even more pressure in this respect in the CAP after 2020. This is also on the agenda for Monday’s meeting of ministers. A further point for discussion is how coupled support could be better shaped to meet CAP objectives and EU added value.

Timeline

The Budget commissioner is committed to reveal his MFF by 2 May and the coming weeks will see intense negotiations on the amount of the budget and the priority’s for expenditure. When it is published, it then goes through the EU institutions which will take several months but the basic shape will be clear from the beginning of May. It is also then the real discussions will begin on CAP 2020 as it and the budget go hand in hand.