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When the UK prime minister Boris Johnston hit the gong to mark the UK leaving the EU on 31 January, the world was a very different place from today and what it will be three and six months from now.
At that point, he was on the crest of a wave, having secured a huge majority in parliament and “got Brexit done”.
Coronavirus was well down the news bulletins as something that was happening in Asia.
The alternative to the shutdown would be even worse
We might have imagined at that point of round-the-clock news coverage of the EU and UK battling it out trying to agree a future trading arrangement in record time to be in place for the UK leaving the transition period on 31 December.
However, at this point, the chief negotiators of the EU and UK are battling coronavirus, with Michel Barnier confirmed as having the virus and David Frost going into isolation on Friday afternoon with symptoms.
Timetable
With the second round already cancelled this week and future rounds in major doubt as coronavirus sweeps across Europe, there has to be serious doubts if any meaningful negotiation can take place in the next six months.
The view was that negotiations had to be completed by the middle of the year to facilitate the ratification. However, this timetable now looks meaningless.
Both the EU and UK institutions are overwhelmed by the spread of the coronavirus and a desperate battle is being fought to defend public health.
This has huge immediate economic consequences, with a shutdown of all but essential activities and with incredible cost to the UK and the member states of the EU. The alternative to the shutdown would be even worse.
Fighting coronavirus has to take precedence
With the entire resources of the state focused on the pandemic, there is no resource in the UK to dedicate to negotiating a future trade deal that was going to be a huge challenge in normal circumstances.
In these exceptional times, the economies of Europe, and perhaps most of the world, are going to be wiped out trying to reboot from the coronavirus shutdown.
The last thing that the UK, or indeed the EU27, need at the end of 2020 is a trading relationship based on WTO rules, with the accompanying bureaucracy and inspections.
As countries closed their borders in recent days, TV pictures showed convoys of trucks several kilometres long parked up on motorways. That would be the new normality between the UK and the continent if trade was being conducted on WTO terms irrespective of coronavirus.
Pandemics don’t respect borders
The rapid global spread of coronavirus is also a timely reminder how small the world has become with air travel. It has also demonstrated how it doesn’t respect national boundaries.
The UK and USA, both political advocates of independence and isolation, are being hit equally hard as many countries in the single market of the EU, although Italy is hardest hit of all.
After all, when a global pandemic occurs, sovereignty is meaningless
When coronavirus is finally brought under control - and that will take months, if not longer - the task of rebuilding economies will begin.
In recent times, the financial crash and banking crisis of 2008 has been the benchmark of threats to the global economy.
With countries shutting down for a prolonged period, the cost of coronavirus is going to exceed this dramatically and is likely to be more comparable to the impact of WW2.
Rethink on type of Brexit?
That required a huge physical rebuilding programme in much of the world and while coronavirus won’t damage physical infrastructure, it will decimate business in all but the most essential sectors of the economy which are essential for human survival.
Pharmaceutical and food will survive and maybe prosper, as will food distribution. Any industry or service that isn’t essential will be severely hit.
Against this background, how relevant and important is Brexit to the UK? At the end, even the most enthusiastic were no longer championing an economic benefit but putting the value on independence and sovereignty.
With a decimated economy like all their former partners in the EU after coronavirus, perhaps the UK will consider that a close economic relationship with the EU27 is the best way to recover. After all, when a global pandemic occurs, sovereignty is meaningless.
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