A return to tariffs on EU dairy being imported into the United States is likely under a second Donald Trump presidency, according to the CEO of the US National Milk Producer Federation, Gregg Doud.

Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal in Washington DC, he said that Trump has a re-balancing of trade with the EU firmly in his sights if elected in November.

The last time Trump was in power, a tariff on EU dairy produce was imposed in 2019, which was only removed in 2021.

Kerrygold is the number two butter brand in the US and the most exposed Irish food export, in the event of a new trade war with the US.

According to Doud, a former US trade negotiator, US farmers and food producers have failed to benefit from trade deals with the EU and this is something Trump will try to redress, if elected.

Meanwhile, a reduction in both the dairy and beef cow herd in the US has led to a huge increase in the demand for cattle, with three-day old dairy-cross calves fetching over $1,000 (€918) per head.

The high prices for beef calves is resulting in a surge in beef inseminations, with 75% of dairy cows in the US getting served to beef which is resulting in a shortage of dairy replacements.

According to the National Milk Producers Federation, freshly calved cows are making between $3,500 to $4,000 (€3,215 to €3,675) per head, double the normal cost.

There is over $7bn (€6.43bn) worth of new dairy processing facilities coming on stream in the US over the next 18 months, the majority of them cheese and whey plants.

US dairy farmers have returned to profitability in 2024 after a difficult year last year, but the shortage of heifers and low feed stocks is limiting their ability to expand.