Negotiations continue on the Black Sea Grain Deal that has facilitated the export of over 10m tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs from Ukraine since the agreement was signed in July.

The deal automatically extends this weekend for a further six months unless one party gives notice to terminate or change.

Russia suspended its participation in the deal at the start of the month, however, it quickly returned to the negotiation table.

It is understood that negotiators are working to remove obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertiliser.

A deal in the coming days could further stabilise food prices and soften nitrogen fertiliser prices if Russian trade is facilitated. The United Nations, EU and UK have supported the resumption of Russian food and fertiliser trade.

Hope for ammonia trade

There is hope that an agreement would allow the resumption of ammonia exports from Russia for nitrogen production.

Russia accounts for a quarter of global ammonia exports, half of which are exported via a pipeline through Ukraine to the port of Yuzhny near Odessa. Ukraine shut down this pipeline at the start of the war.

The Black Sea Grain deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to facilitate grain exports from the Black Sea also provided for the resumption of this trade. Russia has complained that western countries are not doing enough to facilitate exports of Russian fertiliser, ammonia and grain. There has been little appetite by traders, vessels or insurers to revisit this trade.

In September, Ukraine proposed restarting Russian ammonia exports in exchange for prisoner of war release.