The expected loss of around 10% of all dairy cows and 8% of sucklers across the EU over the next decade is anticipated to land a blow on the EU’s beef output as other regions are eyeing up expansion.

This reduction in cattle numbers could see the EU producing 6.7% less beef over the next decade with the loss of almost three million cows.

The European Commission’s 2024 agricultural outlook expects EU member states to witness a faster suckler cow decline over the coming decade than they did in the last.

An annual suckler cow decline of 0.2% is forecast to accelerate to a yearly reduction of 0.7% between now and 2035.

An increase in carcase weights is not anticipated to be sufficient to counter this pressure in cattle numbers brought about by “low profitability” and the prospect of “stricter” regulatory burdens on beef farmers.

The Commission’s outlook only accounts for the expected impact of already-ratified trade agreements, so any potential impacts of an EU-Mercosur are not reflected in this projected decline in beef output.

It is anticipated that EU consumers will be eating around 6% less beef by 2035 on the back of higher prices and an expectation that there will be a “growing negative perception” of beef resulting from consumer “sustainability concerns”.

Cancel out

The average EU consumer will be eating 9.2kg beef per year, equivalent to 13.1kg in carcase terms, in a decade’s time.

This reduction in demand for beef is expected to cancel out the impact of lower production in keeping the EU’s self-sufficiency rate for the commodity at 107%. Imports and exports of beef into/out of the EU are both forecast to grow slowly.

While the EU’s live exports of beef cattle increased by 3.5% in the 10 years up to 2024, a downturn in the live trade of 3.2% each year is anticipated up to 2035.

This decrease in live beef cattle exports represents the equivalent of 200,000 300kg carcases in volume terms.